Gold Outlook Remains Capped, Silver More Aggressive but Riskier
Gold prices are expected to stay range-bound in the short to medium term as the strong US dollar and persistent global uncertainty continue to weigh on the market.
According to Trading Economics data on Wednesday (April 29), gold prices fell 0.46% to US$4,575 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver slipped 0.21% to US$72.88 per troy ounce.
This decline extends the previous bearish trend, where gold dropped around 2% and silver plunged 3%, hitting their lowest levels since late March 2026.
Brahmantya Himawan, an analyst at PT Finex Bisnis Solusi Futures, said the pressure on gold is likely to persist as long as global inflation remains elevated and the US Federal Reserve has yet to signal monetary easing.
“As long as oil prices remain high due to geopolitical tensions and global energy distribution is still disrupted, inflationary pressure could persist. This may keep the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates,” he said.
These conditions are expected to support a stronger US dollar, ultimately limiting gold’s upside as a safe-haven asset.
On the other hand, silver is projected to show higher volatility compared to gold. In addition to safe-haven demand, silver also has strong industrial demand components. “If the global economy improves, silver could see more aggressive upside than gold, but with higher risk,” he added.
For May 2026, gold is projected to trade within the range of US$4,400 to US$4,500 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver is expected to move between US$66 and US$71 per troy ounce.
Both commodities are likely to remain in a sideways trend with high volatility, as investors await clearer signals on US interest rate policy and global geopolitical developments.
From a strategy perspective, investors are advised to remain selective. For medium- to long-term investors, the current price correction presents an opportunity for gradual accumulation, particularly in gold as a hedge.
However, in the short term, investors should wait for clearer market direction following the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, given the ongoing high volatility.
He concluded that gold is currently at a crossroads between geopolitical risks and the strength of the US dollar.
“As long as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance and oil prices stay elevated, a sustained gold rally is unlikely to be smooth.”