Gold Holds Near 7-Week High as Iran Uncertainty and Fed Outlook Drive Markets
Gold prices edged higher on Monday after reaching a seven-week high in the previous session, as investors monitored ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and awaited key US inflation data for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.
Spot gold (XAU/USD) rose 0.3% to $4,354.51 per ounce at 10:03 WIB, while US Gold Futures also gained 0.3% to $4,414.40.
Gold prices climbed to their highest level since June 17 on Friday after data showed that the US economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July, while a sharp downward revision to the previous month’s employment growth further highlighted signs of weakness in the labor market.
The weaker-than-expected employment data prompted traders to significantly scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Futures markets now price the probability of a rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting at below 50%, compared with more than 50% previously.
Lower interest rates generally support non-yielding assets such as gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.
Market participants are now turning their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Softer-than-expected inflation readings could strengthen expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy and provide further support for gold prices.
Geopolitical Risks Keep Gold Supported
Geopolitical uncertainty remains another key driver of demand for precious metals. Iran said it was approaching a final agreement with Oman to establish a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, although Tehran stressed that Washington still needs to meet several conditions before the strategically important waterway can fully reopen.
Geopolitical tensions typically support gold by increasing demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. However, renewed gains in oil prices could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially limit expectations for Federal Reserve monetary easing.
Elsewhere in the precious metals market, silver prices rose 1.3% to $64.36 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.5% to $1,757.64.
Benchmark London Metal Exchange copper futures edged 0.6% higher to $14,126.33 per metric ton, while US copper futures advanced 0.7% to $6.635 per pound.
“Copper has rallied sharply on expectations of US import tariffs, as traders rush to move the metal into the US and physical markets become increasingly tight,” ING analysts said in a recent note. “With prices once again approaching record highs, disappointment over tariff policy could put the tariff premium to the test.”
Gold Market Outlook
Gold remains supported by a combination of softer US labor-market conditions, shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, and persistent geopolitical risks. Investors will closely monitor the upcoming US inflation data, which could determine the next major direction for XAU/USD.
If inflation comes in below expectations, markets may increase bets on a more dovish Fed stance, potentially supporting gold’s upward momentum. Conversely, stronger inflation could push back expectations for monetary easing and limit further gains in the precious metal.






