Gold Monthly Rebound

Gold Prices Slip but Remain on Track for First Monthly Gain in Five Months

Gold prices declined on Friday but remained on course for their first monthly gain since February, as investors reassessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates following the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting earlier this week.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,054.20 per ounce as of 10:57 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 1.2% to $4,049.30 per ounce.

Gold found some support after June inflation data came in lower than expected, reinforcing expectations that inflationary pressures may be easing. The report, based on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, prompted investors to reassess the central bank's next policy move after officials left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to address inflation risks, signaling that additional rate hikes remain possible if price pressures intensify. However, he also suggested that bond markets may already be tightening financial conditions on behalf of the Fed, leaving traders uncertain about the central bank's next step.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign roughly a 63% probability of a September rate hike, down significantly from more than 80% just one week ago.

Analysts at ING noted that investors remain cautious, saying the market is concerned that the Federal Reserve may hesitate to translate its commitment to price stability into more aggressive monetary tightening.

Expectations that the Fed could delay further interest rate increases have provided support for gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar edged higher after posting its biggest daily decline since January 2023 on Thursday. A stronger dollar typically weighs on gold prices by making the precious metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Despite Friday's decline, spot gold is still up approximately 1% in July, putting the precious metal on track for its first monthly advance in five months. Gold has faced persistent pressure throughout 2026 as elevated oil prices fueled inflation concerns, increasing expectations that major central banks could maintain a more hawkish monetary policy stance for longer.

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Gold Rally Fades

 

Gold Slips as Fed Optimism Fades and Stronger US Dollar Weighs on Prices

Gold prices retreated on Thursday as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook following the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. A stronger US dollar and a rebound in US Treasury yields also pressured the precious metal, limiting its recent gains.

As of 11:44 WIB, XAU/USD fell 0.4% to $4,049.99 per ounce, after earlier climbing to a one-week high of $4,100.42 in the aftermath of the Fed's policy announcement. Meanwhile, Gold Futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20, silver (XAG/USD) declined 0.6% to $57.32, and platinum (XPT/USD) dropped 1.3% to $1,597.87.

Gold Rally Loses Momentum After Fed Holds Rates Steady

Gold initially rallied after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as declining US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar Index boosted demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

However, the rally quickly lost steam after investors digested comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who reiterated the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation back to its long-term 2% target despite maintaining its current monetary policy stance.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was last trading near 100.9, while benchmark Treasury yields recovered from their post-decision lows, reducing the upside potential for gold.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in approximately a 64% probability of a September interest rate hike, down from around 81% before the Fed's policy announcement, reflecting a notable shift in market expectations.

Middle East Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Elevated

Geopolitical tensions also remained in focus after the United States launched fresh strikes against Iran overnight. US Central Command described the operation as a "strong response" to what it called an attempted Iranian attack on American forces the previous day.

Earlier, President Donald Trump vowed to retaliate against Tehran, stating that the United States would respond decisively after the military intercepted what he described as a surprise Iranian attack targeting US troops.

The renewed escalation has kept oil prices elevated as traders assess the risk of further disruptions to global energy supplies. Shipping concerns have also intensified after the Iran-backed Houthi group warned it would target Saudi vessels attempting to reach the Indian Ocean, prompting several oil tankers to seek alternative routes.

Persistent strength in energy markets has reinforced concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer, complicating the Federal Reserve's path toward future monetary policy easing.

US PCE Inflation Data in Focus

Investors are now awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, for fresh clues on inflation trends and the future direction of interest rates.

Market attention will also shift to upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) later this week, with both central banks widely expected to leave their benchmark interest rates unchanged.

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Gold Futures Rise

 

Gold Futures Edge Higher During Asian Trading Session as US Dollar Weakens

Gold futures traded higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, supported by a softer US dollar and steady demand for safe-haven assets.

On the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), August Gold Futures were trading at $4,029.00 per troy ounce at the time of writing, marking a 0.24% gain for the day.

Earlier in the session, gold futures climbed to an intraday high, highlighting continued bullish sentiment among investors. Technically, the precious metal is expected to find immediate support at $4,009.80, while the next key resistance level stands at $4,144.00.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures, which measures the performance of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, declined 0.16% to 101.11. A weaker dollar typically makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, helping to support bullion prices.

Elsewhere in the metals market, September Silver Futures advanced 0.72% to $57.94 per troy ounce, reflecting stronger buying interest in precious metals. In contrast, September Copper Futures slipped 0.29% to $6.32 per pound, as traders remained cautious over the outlook for industrial demand.

Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming economic data and central bank developments, which could influence both the US dollar and precious metals markets in the coming trading sessions.

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