Gold Holds Steady

Gold Price Holds Steady as Investors Weigh Fed Outlook and Rising US-Iran Tensions

Gold prices traded little changed on Monday as investors balanced escalating tensions between the United States and Iran against expectations that higher oil prices could reinforce the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping interest rates elevated for longer.

As of 09:17 GMT, spot gold (XAU/USD) edged up 0.1% to $4,020.63 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.8% to $4,030.20. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) climbed 1.8% to $56.97 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.2% to $1,598.45 per ounce.

Middle East Tensions Revive Inflation Concerns

Gold remained under pressure after falling more than 2% last week, as investors assessed whether renewed conflict in the Middle East could keep inflationary pressures elevated despite recent signs of easing price growth in the United States.

Brent crude oil surged above $90 per barrel after the United States and Iran intensified military operations over the weekend. The latest escalation included attacks on key oil facilities in Kuwait and strikes targeting vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns over global energy supplies.

Tehran declared that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran had effectively collapsed, increasing the risk of prolonged disruptions along one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes.

Now entering its fifth month, the conflict has pushed energy and industrial commodity prices higher, while uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's strategy toward Iran has kept investors focused on the broader economic implications.

Federal Reserve Policy Remains in Focus

Recent U.S. inflation and labor market data suggest a softer economic backdrop, but investors remain cautious over whether rising energy costs could complicate the Federal Reserve's battle against inflation.

Higher oil prices have revived concerns that inflation may remain above the Fed's target, potentially forcing policymakers to maintain restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. Elevated interest rates typically support U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Analysts at ANZ noted that last week's escalation in the Middle East briefly pushed market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July 29 meeting to as high as 40%, before easing back to around 10%. The sharp shift highlighted how closely gold prices continue to track changes in interest rate expectations.

The bank added that the hurdle for another Fed rate hike remains high and continues to expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged this year. According to ANZ, the Fed is likely to look through higher energy prices unless they trigger broader second- and third-round inflation effects across the economy.

ANZ also expects gold to find strong support within the $3,800–$4,000 per ounce range as expectations for additional monetary tightening gradually fade.

Gold Price Outlook

Gold has traded within a relatively narrow range around the key psychological $4,000 level in recent weeks after plunging 14% during the second quarter—its weakest quarterly performance since 2013. The decline underscores how expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy continue to outweigh traditional safe-haven demand, even amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Keywords: Gold Price, XAU/USD, Federal Reserve, Fed Interest Rates, US-Iran Tensions, Inflation, Brent Crude Oil, Gold Price Forecast, Safe-Haven Assets, Precious Metals.

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Gold Trims Losses

Gold Price Trims Weekly Losses as Bargain Hunting Offsets Middle East Inflation Fears

Gold prices posted modest gains on Friday as bargain hunters stepped in following the previous session's sharp selloff. However, the precious metal remained on course for its biggest weekly decline since early June, as escalating US-Iran tensions continued to fuel inflation concerns and support the US dollar.

At 15:12 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) rose 0.47% to $3,995.35 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.18% to $3,999.22. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) slipped 0.18% to $55.43 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) dropped 2% to $1,589.57.

Gold Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Since Early June

Despite Friday's recovery, gold remained down around 3% for the week, marking its steepest weekly decline since early June as investors continued to favor the US dollar and other interest-bearing assets.

The latest wave of selling followed another US strike on Iranian targets on Thursday, just one day after an attack severely damaged an oil tanker near one of Iran's major export terminals. The renewed hostilities have extended the Middle East conflict into its fifth month, keeping crude oil prices elevated and reviving concerns that higher energy costs could reignite global inflation.

Rising oil prices complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook by increasing the risk that inflation remains above the central bank's target. As a result, interest rates may stay higher for longer, supporting US Treasury yields and the greenback while reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Although US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data released this week indicated easing underlying inflation pressures, markets largely looked past the backward-looking figures amid growing concerns that surging energy prices could reverse the recent disinflation trend.

Federal Reserve Officials Maintain a Hawkish Tone

Federal Reserve policymakers continued to emphasize that inflation risks remain elevated despite recent signs of moderating price pressures.

Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, said the lack of a meaningful rebound in gold following weaker-than-expected US CPI and PPI data earlier this week was "not a particularly encouraging sign" for the metal's near-term outlook.

According to Sycamore, Thursday's decline has placed renewed pressure on the view that gold established a base near its late-June low of $3,942.

He added that a decisive break below that support could expose the October 2025 low around $3,886, while a recovery above the descending trendline resistance near $4,140 would significantly improve the technical outlook.

"For now, gold remains in a vulnerable position, facing pressure from a stronger US dollar and continued risk-off market flows," Sycamore said.

Gold has traded around the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce for several weeks as Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Kevin Warsh, Governor Christopher Waller, and New York Fed President John Williams, reiterated that inflation remains too high to justify monetary policy easing.

Fed officials continue to stress that inflation is still above the central bank's 2% target, signaling they require sustained evidence of cooling price pressures before considering any interest rate cuts. This cautious stance has kept investors focused on developments that could reignite inflation, particularly persistently high energy prices.

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Gold Price Falls

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Remains Bearish as Iran Tensions Fuel Inflation Risks and Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold prices remained under pressure as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran boosted crude oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. The renewed outlook for tighter monetary policy continues to support the US dollar and limits upside potential for the precious metal.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds Bearish Bias Below 200-Day SMA

The XAU/USD pair continues to trade with a short-term bearish bias, remaining below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and within a broader descending parallel channel.

Although momentum indicators suggest selling pressure has eased slightly, they do not yet signal a sustainable bullish reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally positive at 9.43, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 40.77, indicating temporary stabilization rather than a confirmed recovery.

A decisive break and sustained close below the key psychological level of $4,000 would expose the year-to-date low around $3,943–$3,942, recorded in June. Further downside could extend toward the channel's lower boundary near $3,675.71, a major structural support level. A clear breakdown below this area would reinforce the broader bearish trend.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located near the upper boundary of the descending channel at $4,093.63, where renewed selling interest is expected to emerge. A sustained move above this level would shift focus toward the 200-day SMA around $4,495.94, which represents the next major resistance zone.

Softer US Producer Inflation Weighs on the Dollar

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined 0.3% in June, following a downwardly revised 0.6% increase in the previous month.

On an annual basis, producer inflation slowed to 5.5% from 6.0% in May. The report followed the sharpest monthly decline in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) since April 2020, reinforcing signs that underlying inflationary pressures are easing.

Following the data, traders reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to its lowest level since June 18 and providing temporary support for gold prices during Wednesday's trading session.

Iran Conflict Keeps Oil Prices Elevated and Revives Inflation Fears

Despite softer inflation data, energy-driven inflation risks remain elevated as crude oil prices continue to trade near one-month highs amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and ongoing concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States launched another round of airstrikes against Iranian targets on Wednesday, hitting coastal defense systems and missile infrastructure. Iran responded with drone and missile attacks against US-linked military facilities across the region.

US President Donald Trump also warned that additional critical Iranian infrastructure could become military targets should the conflict continue to escalate.

Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to expand the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes, raising concerns that Tehran could use its Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The heightened geopolitical risks continue to support crude oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver at least one 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026.

That outlook is likely to prevent aggressive US dollar selling and suggests that the path of least resistance for gold prices remains tilted to the downside in the near term.

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