Gold Under Pressure

Gold Price Outlook: Sellers Hold Control Near $4,700 Ahead of US PMI Data

Gold prices remain under pressure during Thursday’s European session, continuing their intraday decline while showing limited resilience below the $4,700 level. The US Dollar extends its three-day winning streak, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly following the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Technically, the XAU/USD pair is hovering near the lower boundary of an ascending parallel channel, signaling a neutral short-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned around 39, leaning toward the lower end of its range—indicating fading bullish momentum without yet reaching oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, reinforcing the view that upside attempts may struggle until momentum improves.

A decisive break below the channel support near $4,691 could expose the previous structural base around $4,568, opening the door for further downside if selling pressure intensifies. On the upside, bulls need a sustained breakout above the channel resistance near $4,926 to revive the broader uptrend and unlock additional gains.

Geopolitical risks continue to play a key role in shaping market sentiment. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with fading expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), are boosting demand for the US Dollar and weighing on non-yielding assets like gold.

US President Donald Trump recently announced a temporary extension of the Iran ceasefire, just hours before its expiration. However, investor confidence in a lasting de-escalation remains fragile due to stalled peace negotiations and escalating tensions in the region. The US has maintained its naval blockade, while Iran insists on its removal as a strict condition for resuming talks. Adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly seized two container ships on Wednesday—marking the first such action since hostilities with the US and Israel escalated earlier this year.

At the same time, ongoing disruptions to energy supply routes in the region are keeping crude oil prices elevated, fueling global inflation concerns. This environment has strengthened expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may maintain a more hawkish stance. Although the Fed has projected a potential rate cut later this year, persistent inflation and resilient economic activity have raised the bar for policy easing.

As a result, the Fed may adopt a wait-and-see approach, further supporting the US Dollar and diverting capital flows away from gold. Traders are now watching closely for a confirmed break below the $4,700 level before initiating fresh bearish positions, anticipating deeper declines in the near term.

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Gold Prices Plunge

Gold Prices Drop Over 2% Amid US–Iran Uncertainty and Strong Dollar Pressure

Global gold prices fell sharply by more than 2% on Tuesday (April 21, 2026), weighed down by a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields, as uncertainty surrounding US–Iran relations dampened market sentiment.

Spot gold declined 2.2% to $4,712.04 per ounce at 13:46 local time, marking its lowest level since April 13, 2026. Meanwhile, US gold futures for June delivery slipped 2.3% to $4,719.60 per ounce.

The decline in gold prices was largely driven by a 0.2% rise in the US dollar against major currencies, making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies. At the same time, yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds increased, reducing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

According to RJO Futures analyst Bob Haberkorn, the combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar has been the key pressure on gold prices. In addition, ongoing developments related to Iran have further weakened market sentiment.

“Higher yields and the US dollar are weighing on gold, alongside mixed signals surrounding Iran that are also pushing energy prices higher,” he said.

On the geopolitical front, former US President Donald Trump had previously signaled a tougher stance by indicating reluctance to extend the ceasefire with Iran. He also emphasized that the US military was prepared to act if negotiations failed. These remarks initially pushed crude oil prices up by more than 3%. However, he later announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire after markets closed.

Rising oil prices since the escalation of tensions involving the US and Israel against Iran on February 28 have fueled inflation concerns. This could limit the potential for interest rate cuts, creating additional downward pressure on gold, which does not offer yields.

Investor attention is also focused on the confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh before the US Senate Banking Committee. Warsh has advocated for major reforms at the central bank, including a new approach to inflation control and changes in monetary policy communication strategies.

Markets are expected to remain volatile as investors closely monitor the future direction of Federal Reserve policy.

The decline extended beyond gold. Spot silver dropped 3.9% to $76.76 per ounce, platinum fell 2.7% to $2,033.37, and palladium edged down 0.6% to $1,541.56 per ounce.

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Gold Price Divergence

 

Antam Gold Rises While Global Prices Fall: What’s Driving the Divergence?

Certified gold bars from PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM), widely known as Antam gold, recorded a price increase on Tuesday (April 21). In contrast, global gold prices moved in the opposite direction, posting a decline during the same trading session.

According to the official Logam Mulia website, the price of 1-gram Antam gold rose by IDR 40,000 to reach IDR 2,880,000. Meanwhile, the Antam gold buyback price also climbed by IDR 50,000, settling at IDR 2,690,000 per gram.

On the global front, data from Trading Economics showed that gold prices slipped by 0.75% to US$4,785.77 per troy ounce as of 14:10 WIB on Tuesday (April 21).

Chief Analyst at Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, explained that the increase in Antam gold prices appears to reflect short-term market enthusiasm. This optimism is driven by expectations surrounding ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, which investors hope could lead to a peaceful resolution. However, uncertainty continues to linger, limiting sustained upward momentum in global gold prices.

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