Gold Below $4600

 

Gold Price Falls Below $4,600 After Thursday Rally Amid Strong USD and Fed Outlook

Gold prices slipped back below the $4,600 level after a brief rally on Thursday, facing renewed bearish pressure as the US Dollar (USD) remains resilient. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding US–Iran tensions, combined with speculation over Japan’s possible forex intervention, has weighed on the XAU/USD pair.

During the previous session, gold managed to break above $4,600 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), triggering short-covering activity in intraday trading. However, the upward move stalled near $4,650, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the April swing high decline. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58.33, indicating moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative. This suggests that bullish attempts are still tentative despite prices holding above short-term trend levels.

A sustained breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $4,651.19 is needed to confirm further upside potential. If bullish momentum continues, the next resistance level lies at the 50% retracement mark near $4,696.20. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-hour SMA around $4,623.78. A break below this level could expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,595.49, with a deeper decline potentially targeting the monthly low near $4,505.46.

Fundamental Outlook: Fed Policy and Geopolitics Weigh on Gold

Gold remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, supporting the US Dollar and limiting upside for the non-yielding metal. The precious metal is currently on track to post losses for a second consecutive week.

Geopolitical tensions also continue to influence market sentiment. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, instead maintaining a firm stance on nuclear negotiations. Reports suggesting potential new US military action against Iran have heightened fears of further escalation, reinforcing the safe-haven appeal of the USD while capping gold’s gains.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. Notably, the decision saw the highest level of dissent since 1992, with three policymakers opposing the current policy stance. Strong US economic data released Thursday further supports expectations that rates may remain elevated for longer.

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.7% month-over-month in March, with the annual rate climbing to 3.5% from 2.8% in February. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.2% year-over-year, up from 3.0% previously. Additionally, preliminary GDP data showed the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026, a sharp improvement from the revised 0.5% growth in Q4 2025.

Despite this, market expectations for at least one 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026 have risen to over 15%, up from just 1.3% a day earlier. This shift is preventing aggressive USD buying and helping limit further downside in gold prices.

Looking ahead, traders are closely watching upcoming US economic data releases, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI due Friday. At the same time, developments in the Middle East will remain a key driver of USD movement and overall gold market direction.

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Gold Market Volatility

 

Gold Prices Remain Volatile, Investors Advised to Use Gradual Accumulation Strategy

Gold prices continue to experience high volatility, prompting investors to be more selective in choosing investment strategies. This comes amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the direction of the United States Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Analysts suggest that a conservative approach combined with disciplined risk management is essential in navigating current market conditions.

According to Bloomberg data on Thursday (April 30, 2026) at 07:24 WIB, spot gold prices stood at US$4,560.59 per troy ounce, marking a 0.28% daily increase. However, on a weekly basis, gold prices have declined by 2.84%, reflecting ongoing market pressure.

President Commissioner of HFX International Berjangka, Sutopo Widodo, recommends that investors avoid aggressive speculation and instead focus on a gradual accumulation strategy, commonly known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA). He also emphasized the importance of waiting for market confirmation, both from technical indicators and central bank policy decisions.

“Investors should maintain liquidity and apply strong risk management to stay flexible and capitalize on opportunities once market trends become clearer,” Sutopo stated.

Similarly, Brahmantya Himawan, Analyst at PT Finex Bisnis Solusi Futures, believes the recent correction in gold prices presents an attractive entry point for medium- to long-term investors.

“For medium- to long-term investment, this correction offers a good opportunity for gradual accumulation, especially as gold remains a reliable hedge asset. However, in the short term, investors should wait for clearer direction following the FOMC decision due to persistent volatility,” he explained.

Brahmantya added that gold is currently influenced by two major factors: geopolitical tensions and a strengthening US dollar. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains a tight monetary policy and energy prices remain elevated, gold prices are likely to stay under pressure.

Meanwhile, Lukman Leong, Chief Analyst at Doo Financial Futures, sees opportunities for more active strategies among short-term investors. He suggests applying a range trading approach—buying at lower price levels and selling at higher ones.

“Short- and medium-term investors can take advantage of price fluctuations through range trading, while long-term investors should continue accumulating during price dips,” Lukman noted.

He further explained that gold remains under pressure in the short term, moves sideways in the medium term, but still maintains a bullish outlook in the long run.

In terms of asset selection, analysts agree that gold remains a primary choice for defensive investors. Silver, on the other hand, offers higher upside potential but comes with greater volatility.

Given the current market landscape, experts advise investors to align their strategies with their individual risk profiles and investment horizons while awaiting clearer signals from US central bank policies, which remain the key driver of market movements.

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Gold Outlook Stalled

 

Gold Outlook Remains Capped, Silver More Aggressive but Riskier

Gold prices are expected to stay range-bound in the short to medium term as the strong US dollar and persistent global uncertainty continue to weigh on the market.

According to Trading Economics data on Wednesday (April 29), gold prices fell 0.46% to US$4,575 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver slipped 0.21% to US$72.88 per troy ounce.

This decline extends the previous bearish trend, where gold dropped around 2% and silver plunged 3%, hitting their lowest levels since late March 2026.

Brahmantya Himawan, an analyst at PT Finex Bisnis Solusi Futures, said the pressure on gold is likely to persist as long as global inflation remains elevated and the US Federal Reserve has yet to signal monetary easing.

“As long as oil prices remain high due to geopolitical tensions and global energy distribution is still disrupted, inflationary pressure could persist. This may keep the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates,” he said.

These conditions are expected to support a stronger US dollar, ultimately limiting gold’s upside as a safe-haven asset.

On the other hand, silver is projected to show higher volatility compared to gold. In addition to safe-haven demand, silver also has strong industrial demand components. “If the global economy improves, silver could see more aggressive upside than gold, but with higher risk,” he added.

For May 2026, gold is projected to trade within the range of US$4,400 to US$4,500 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver is expected to move between US$66 and US$71 per troy ounce.

Both commodities are likely to remain in a sideways trend with high volatility, as investors await clearer signals on US interest rate policy and global geopolitical developments.

From a strategy perspective, investors are advised to remain selective. For medium- to long-term investors, the current price correction presents an opportunity for gradual accumulation, particularly in gold as a hedge.

However, in the short term, investors should wait for clearer market direction following the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, given the ongoing high volatility.

He concluded that gold is currently at a crossroads between geopolitical risks and the strength of the US dollar.

“As long as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance and oil prices stay elevated, a sustained gold rally is unlikely to be smooth.”

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