Gold Price Rebounds

 

Gold Price Rebounds Toward $4,100 Ahead of Key US Jobs Report

Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their recovery toward the $4,100 level during Thursday's European session as the US Dollar remained under selling pressure ahead of the release of the closely watched US June employment report.

The weaker greenback provided additional support for bullion, while investors turned their attention to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Cautiously Bullish

From a technical perspective, gold's overnight short-covering rally stalled near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent two-week decline. Moreover, XAU/USD continues to trade below its 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that the broader short-term trend remains slightly bearish.

However, momentum indicators are showing signs of improvement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive above the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding near 54, indicating strengthening buying momentum.

As long as gold remains above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, the recovery could continue, although upside potential may remain limited within the prevailing market structure.

Key Gold Price Levels to Watch

Immediate resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,112.32, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,145.47 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4,164.62.

Additional upside targets include:

• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement: $4,216.91

• 78.6% Fibonacci retracement: $4,291.37

• Recent cycle high: $4,386.20

On the downside, initial support stands at the reclaimed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,047.62. A decisive break below this level could expose the recent swing low around $3,943.03.

Weak US Economic Data Weighs on the Dollar

On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that US private-sector employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June, falling short of both the previous reading of 122,000 and economists' expectations of 113,000.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June from 54.0 previously. The Prices Paid Index dropped sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, while the Employment Index improved slightly to 49.7 from 48.6 in May.

In addition, declining crude oil prices have significantly eased near-term inflation concerns, reducing demand for the US Dollar and providing further support for gold prices.

Fed Rate Expectations Continue to Support the US Dollar

Despite weaker economic indicators, markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively hawkish stance.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign roughly a 64% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September and nearly an 85% chance of higher borrowing costs by year-end.

Those expectations were reinforced by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank remains committed to its 2% inflation target and signaled that monetary policy would not be eased prematurely despite political calls for lower interest rates.

Several Fed officials have also indicated that additional policy tightening may still be necessary to bring inflation back under control. This outlook could limit further downside in the US Dollar while capping gains in non-yielding assets such as gold.

Geopolitical Risks Keep Gold in Focus

Geopolitical uncertainty also remains a key market driver.

Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded in Qatar without any significant progress toward a lasting peace agreement, leaving tensions surrounding the strategically important Strait of Hormuz unresolved.

Meanwhile, Russia launched another missile and drone attack on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, early Thursday, maintaining demand for safe-haven assets.

Investors now await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later in the North American session. The employment data is expected to play a crucial role in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, influencing the US Dollar, and determining the near-term direction of gold prices.

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Gold Hits Low

Gold Falls to Eight-Month Low, Posts Sharp June Loss as Rate Hike Fears Intensify

Gold prices dropped to their lowest level in eight months on Tuesday, heading for a fourth consecutive monthly decline as persistent inflation concerns and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates continued to weigh on the precious metal.

Spot gold fell 1.3% to $3,965.51 per ounce as of 08:47 WIB, while gold futures declined 1.5% to $3,975.92 per ounce. Spot prices reached their weakest level since early November.

For June, spot gold has plunged 12.8%, marking its worst monthly performance since 2008.

The decline was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once more this year. Market expectations strengthened after the central bank adopted a more hawkish tone during its June policy meeting, with several policymakers signaling support for additional rate hikes.

Rising energy prices, combined with supply disruptions linked to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI), have fueled concerns that inflation could remain stubbornly high throughout the year. As a result, investors increasingly expect the Fed to maintain tighter monetary policy.

Although energy prices eased in recent weeks following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East remains elevated after renewed military tensions over the weekend.

Inflation concerns related to AI intensified after Apple Inc. increased prices on several of its devices last week due to higher semiconductor costs. The move followed similar price increases by other electronics manufacturers as the booming AI industry continues to absorb a significant share of the global chip supply.

Persistent inflation expectations have reinforced forecasts for higher interest rates, putting additional pressure on gold and other non-yielding assets. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, making it less attractive compared to interest-bearing investments.

Silver and Platinum Also Post Heavy Monthly Losses

Other precious metals also extended their declines on Tuesday, ending June with substantial losses.

Spot silver fell 2.0% to $57.1090 per ounce, bringing its monthly decline to 24.2%. Meanwhile, spot platinum slipped 1.3% to $1,563.25 per ounce, finishing the month down nearly 19%.

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Gold Prices Decline

Gold Prices Fall on Monday Morning Following US-Iran Military Exchange in the Persian Gulf

Gold prices declined during Monday morning trading (June 29) after renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran in the Persian Gulf unsettled global financial markets.

According to Bloomberg, as of 07:23 WIB, August 2026 gold futures on the Commodity Exchange were trading at US$4,074.20 per troy ounce, down 0.54% from last weekend's closing price of US$4,096.30 per troy ounce.

The decline came after the United States and Iran exchanged military strikes in the Persian Gulf, raising concerns over regional stability and temporarily overshadowing the ceasefire that had previously helped energy prices retreat to pre-conflict levels.

However, according to an Axios report, both Washington and Tehran have since agreed to halt further attacks and resume diplomatic negotiations in Doha on Tuesday, offering renewed hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East.

The latest geopolitical developments followed the release of U.S. inflation data, which remained elevated but largely met market expectations, reducing the likelihood of immediate surprises from the Federal Reserve.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices have fallen by approximately 23% since the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran in late February, reflecting changing investor sentiment and shifting market expectations.

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