Gold Jumps Higher

Gold Surges 2% as US-Iran Peace Deal Eases Inflation Concerns

Gold prices surged more than 2% during Asian trading on Monday after the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary peace framework aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. The development triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and eased market concerns over inflationary pressures and prolonged higher interest rates.

Spot gold climbed 2.3% to $4,317.32 per ounce as of 08:48 WIB, while August Gold Futures advanced 2.4% to $4,338.75 per ounce.

The rally extended gold’s recovery from last week’s multi-month low near $4,000 per ounce, as investors reassessed the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy.

On Sunday, officials from both the United States and Iran announced that they had reached a peace framework designed to halt hostilities, end the U.S. blockade on Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for global oil shipments.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that the agreement is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday.

The announcement sparked a sharp sell-off in crude oil markets. Brent crude fell more than 4% to around $84 per barrel as traders priced in the return of Gulf oil supplies and reduced risks of supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index slipping 0.2%.

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, it faced pressure throughout much of the conflict. Rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and led investors to anticipate higher interest rates for a longer period.

Those expectations boosted both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, market expectations for further U.S. monetary tightening eased significantly following the peace announcement.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 49% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, down from 69% just one week earlier.

Investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for June 16–17, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while providing updated economic projections.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 1% this week, while the Bank of England is broadly anticipated to maintain its current monetary policy stance.

Among other precious metals, silver gained 3.3% to $70.24 per ounce, while platinum advanced 3.2% to $1,776.60 per ounce.

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Gold Extends Losses

Gold Heads for Second Weekly Loss as Fed Rate Hike Concerns Weigh on Market

Gold prices declined on Friday and remained on track for a second consecutive weekly loss, pressured by persistent inflation concerns and growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again. However, renewed hopes for a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement helped limit further downside.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,182.44 per ounce as of 09:18 WIB and was set to record a weekly decline of more than 3%. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 2.2% to $4,203.87, supported by improving sentiment surrounding peace prospects in the Middle East.

The precious metal had dropped to a six-month low on Thursday before rebounding sharply and ending the session 3.5% higher. The recovery followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that Washington and Tehran could reach a peace agreement as early as this weekend. Such a deal could potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease concerns over global energy supplies.

Despite the optimism, Iranian officials stated that no final agreement has been reached, leaving uncertainty over the region's outlook unresolved.

Broader market sentiment improved on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. Oil prices fell sharply after Trump's remarks, while global equity markets rallied as investors welcomed the possibility of reduced geopolitical tensions.

Gold, traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, has faced pressure in recent weeks as investors increasingly focus on the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making interest-bearing investments more attractive.

XAU/USD Outlook

Fresh U.S. economic data released on Thursday reinforced concerns that inflationary pressures remain elevated. Producer prices increased more than expected in May, recording the strongest annual rise in three and a half years as higher energy costs continued to filter through the broader economy.

The stronger inflation data prompted traders to increase bets that the Federal Reserve may resume monetary tightening later this year. Market pricing currently indicates roughly a 60% probability of a rate hike in December.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded largely unchanged during Asian trading hours after slipping 0.1% in volatile trading on Thursday.

Among other precious metals, spot silver declined 0.8% to $66.80 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.5% to $1,731.08 per ounce.

In industrial metals, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange climbed 1.6% to $13,706.33 per ton, while U.S. copper futures edged up 0.2% to $6.41 per pound.

Key Market Drivers

• Persistent inflation concerns in the United States.

• Rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

• Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.

• Improved risk sentiment across global financial markets.

• Fluctuations in energy prices and commodity demand.

Investors will continue monitoring inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy signals, and geopolitical developments, all of which are expected to play a crucial role in determining the next direction for gold prices and the broader commodities market.

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Gold Buying Opportunity

Gold Prices Drop 13%, Investors Advised to Accumulate Through Dollar-Cost Averaging

Gold prices have declined sharply in recent weeks, prompting market analysts to recommend gradual accumulation strategies as long-term fundamentals for the precious metal remain supportive.

According to Trading Economics data on Thursday, June 11, spot gold traded at $4,095 per troy ounce, marking a 13.31% decline over the past month and a 5.38% loss year-to-date (YTD).

Indonesia's benchmark gold product, Antam-certified bullion produced by PT Aneka Tambang Tbk, also extended its decline on Thursday.

Based on data from Logam Mulia, the price of one gram of Antam gold fell to Rp2,689,000, down Rp24,000 from Wednesday's level of Rp2,713,000 per gram.

Gold Correction Seen as Healthy Market Consolidation

Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX International Berjangka, believes the recent correction in Antam gold prices—currently trading between Rp2.68 million and Rp2.71 million per gram after reaching a record high of Rp3.16 million—represents a normal and healthy consolidation phase within the global commodities market.

Despite the recent pullback, Widodo remains optimistic about gold's medium- and long-term outlook.

Several key factors continue to support bullion prices, including expectations surrounding global interest rate policies, persistent geopolitical tensions, and ongoing reserve diversification efforts by central banks worldwide.

"In addition, domestic factors such as rupiah volatility against the U.S. dollar will provide a strong buffer, preventing local gold prices from falling too deeply," Widodo said on Thursday.

Dollar-Cost Averaging Recommended for Investors

With gold prices correcting by approximately 16% from recent highs, Widodo recommends that investors adopt a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy by purchasing gold gradually over time.

This approach allows investors to avoid the psychological pressure of trying to identify the exact market bottom while helping build a more balanced average acquisition cost.

As a long-term hedge against inflation and a tool for preserving purchasing power, gold investments require patience and discipline.

Widodo advised investors to avoid panic selling and maintain a long-term investment horizon of three to five years.

Antam Gold Price Forecast for 2026

Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to move through two critical phases during the remainder of 2026.

During the first half of the year, Antam gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase, testing a strong support range between Rp2.68 million and Rp2.73 million per gram.

However, conditions could improve significantly during the second half of 2026 as global central banks potentially shift toward monetary easing and geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven demand.

Widodo projects that Antam gold prices could rebound toward the Rp2.9 million to Rp3.1 million per gram range by the end of 2026.

Long-Term Gold Outlook Remains Positive

Although gold has experienced a significant correction in recent weeks, analysts view the decline as a temporary adjustment rather than a reversal of the broader bullish trend.

For long-term investors, gradual accumulation during periods of weakness may provide an attractive opportunity to build positions ahead of a potential recovery driven by lower interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and continued demand for safe-haven assets.

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