Gold Prices Fall

Gold Prices Fall Amid Inflation Fears and Failed US-Iran Talks

Global gold prices declined at the start of the week as rising inflation concerns intensified following the collapse of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

The situation has strengthened the US dollar and pushed oil prices higher, ultimately reducing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

On Monday (April 13, 2026), spot gold prices dropped 0.7% to $4,716.70 per ounce, marking the lowest level since April 7. Meanwhile, US gold futures for June delivery fell 1% to $4,738.90 per ounce. At the same time, the US dollar gained 0.4%, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for global investors.

Pressure on gold increased further as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East after the failed US-Iran negotiations. Reports suggest that the United States is considering a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to restrict Iranian oil exports.

In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that any military vessels approaching the area would be treated as violating the ceasefire and would face firm action.

According to KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer, market sentiment has shifted rapidly. He noted that fading optimism over a ceasefire, combined with rising oil prices and a stronger US dollar, has weighed heavily on gold.

Since the conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran began on February 28, gold prices have fallen by more than 11%. This is notable, as gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation.

However, higher interest rates have reduced gold’s appeal, as it does not offer yield. At the same time, rising energy prices continue to fuel inflation, prompting central banks to maintain or even increase interest rates.

Waterer added that whenever oil prices exceed $100 per barrel, markets quickly speculate about potential rate hikes to curb inflation. This expectation has been a key factor weakening gold performance.

Currently, market participants see a lower probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Prior to the escalation in the Middle East, expectations pointed to two potential rate cuts in 2026.

In other precious metals, silver fell 2% to $74.35 per ounce, platinum edged down 0.2% to $2,041.40, while palladium rose 0.7% to $1,530.80 per ounce.

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Gold Price Drops

Gold Price Slips as Hormuz Risk Fuels Inflation Concerns Ahead of US CPI Data

Gold prices edged lower during the Asian session after failing to break above the key $4,800 resistance level in the previous trading day. The precious metal dropped toward the $4,738–$4,737 range, although downside momentum remains limited as traders await the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for clearer direction.

From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair maintains a neutral to slightly bearish bias, trading well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This resistance aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March decline, making it a crucial pivot point for price action.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 signals moderate underlying demand following the recent pullback. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has dipped slightly into negative territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum and reinforcing the strong resistance near the 200-period SMA at $4,883.

A sustained breakout above this zone could open the door toward $4,908.40, followed by higher targets at $5,131.50 and $5,415.69.

On the downside, immediate support lies at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,751.70. A break below this level may expose further declines toward $4,595.00 and $4,401.11, with stronger structural support seen near $4,087.71.

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Rising Oil Prices and Fed Hawkish Bets Weigh on Gold Outlook

Market attention is now firmly on the upcoming US CPI report, which is expected to show a further rise in inflation for March, largely driven by surging crude oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This scenario could push the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay interest rate cuts.

The recently released FOMC meeting minutes (March 17–18) highlighted that policymakers are in no rush to ease monetary policy, citing inflation risks stemming from energy price shocks linked to Middle East conflicts.

At the same time, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have supported the US Dollar (USD), putting additional pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.

Iran’s decision to halt shipping traffic through the strategic waterway, in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, has intensified market uncertainty. Former US President Donald Trump also criticized Iran’s handling of oil transit in the region and warned of potential new military action if negotiations fail, signaling that escalation risks remain high.

These developments have boosted crude oil prices, fueling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of a hawkish Fed stance—factors that continue to weigh on gold prices. However, the lack of aggressive follow-through selling suggests bearish traders should remain cautious.

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Geopolitical Talks Could Limit Gold Downside

On the diplomatic front, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that direct negotiations with Lebanon would begin soon to address key disputes under the fragile US-Iran ceasefire framework.

A US State Department official confirmed that Lebanon-Israel talks are expected to take place next week in Washington, D.C. Additionally, crucial US-Iran discussions are scheduled to unfold gradually from Friday evening into Saturday.

These developments keep hopes alive for a more stable ceasefire, which could cap further gains in the US Dollar and help limit deeper losses in gold prices.

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Gold Market Uncertain

Gold Price Stalls Amid Middle East Uncertainty Ahead of US Inflation Data

Gold prices struggled to find clear direction during Thursday’s Asian session, hovering near the $4,700 level as traders awaited fresh catalysts. Market sentiment remained cautious amid lingering doubts over the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Technically, gold continues to consolidate with a neutral-to-slightly bearish bias. Prices are holding above the 21-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), located near $4,710 and $4,674, respectively, but remain capped below the 50-day SMA around $4,914. This setup suggests a short-term pullback within a broader uptrend, though momentum remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is hovering just below the 50 mark, signaling a lack of strong directional momentum.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA near $4,913. A daily close above this level could reignite bullish momentum and push gold toward recent highs. On the downside, initial support lies at the 21-day SMA around $4,710, followed by the 100-day SMA near $4,674. A deeper decline could test the 200-day SMA at approximately $4,172, marking a key medium-term support zone.

Risk sentiment weakened early Thursday, boosting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and putting pressure on gold prices. The greenback extended its recovery after previous losses triggered by temporary optimism over a Middle East ceasefire.

However, uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire continues to cloud market outlook. Ongoing Israeli strikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon have raised doubts about the scope of the agreement. While Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the ceasefire includes Lebanon, US Vice President JD Vance denied such claims, citing statements from President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicating otherwise.

Further escalating tensions, Iran reportedly halted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following renewed Israeli attacks in Beirut, reversing a brief reopening during the two-week ceasefire period. Meanwhile, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for launching rockets into northern Israel in response to what it described as ceasefire violations.

The fragile US-Iran ceasefire and uncertainty over Hormuz shipping routes have reignited geopolitical concerns, supporting oil prices while adding bearish pressure to gold in the short term.

On the macroeconomic front, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes provided some temporary relief for gold. Policymakers indicated that interest rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation continues to ease as expected.

Investors now turn their attention to key US economic data, including the final Q4 GDP reading, Core PCE Price Index, and weekly jobless claims. However, February’s PCE data may have limited market impact as it does not reflect the latest geopolitical developments.

The primary focus will shift to Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which is expected to offer clearer insight into inflation trends and the domestic impact of rising Middle East tensions under President Trump. This data could play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for the US Dollar and gold prices.

In the meantime, geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the dominant driver of market sentiment and gold price movements.

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