Gold Rebounds Higher

 

Gold Rebounds Toward $4,100 but Struggles to Gain Momentum Amid Inflation Concerns

Gold prices rebounded toward the $4,100 level on Thursday, snapping a three-day losing streak. However, the recovery remained limited as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reignited global inflation concerns, reducing expectations for aggressive monetary policy easing by major central banks.

The XAU/USD pair traded around $4,056, maintaining a bearish short-term outlook as spot gold remained below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,149.09. Trading beneath this key technical indicator suggests that bullish momentum remains weak despite the latest rebound.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 40.11, remaining in mildly negative territory. Although the indicator does not point to oversold conditions, it continues to signal persistent selling pressure in the gold market.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA of $4,149.09. A sustained breakout above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish sentiment and could open the door for a move toward the $4,200 resistance area.

On the downside, if gold falls below the June 30 low of $3,941.76, the precious metal could extend its decline toward the $3,800 support zone.

Fed Rate Expectations Shift as Inflation Risks Rise

Market participants have increasingly priced in the possibility of persistent inflation, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged this year declined to 14.9%, down from 19.4% recorded on Tuesday, reflecting growing expectations that policymakers may need to maintain a hawkish stance.

Geopolitical tensions also continued to influence investor sentiment. On Wednesday, the US Central Command confirmed it had launched fresh military strikes against Iran aimed at keeping the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping route for nearly 20% of global energy supplies—open for international transit.

The renewed military action followed US President Donald Trump's announcement that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with Iran to end the Middle East conflict was no longer in effect, further escalating uncertainty across global financial markets.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor upcoming US economic data for fresh evidence on inflation trends and their potential impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June policy meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers continue to view inflation as the primary economic risk. Several Fed officials also indicated that additional monetary tightening could still become necessary if inflation remains persistently above the central bank's long-term target.

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Gold Prices Stabilize

Gold Prices Hold Steady Amid Iran Tensions as Markets Await Fed Minutes

Gold prices traded little changed during the Asian session on Wednesday as investors assessed the latest escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran while turning their attention to the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for fresh clues on the future path of interest rates.

Bullion remained stable after suffering a sharp decline in the previous session. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher, reigniting concerns that elevated energy costs could keep inflation stubbornly high.

Spot gold gained 0.3% to $4,117.82 per ounce as of 09:32 GMT, while gold futures slipped 0.7% to $4,127.59 per ounce.

The precious metal had fallen 1.6% on Tuesday after escalating U.S.-Iran tensions strengthened the U.S. dollar and fueled expectations that inflationary pressures could keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Washington launched fresh military strikes against Iran and revoked licenses allowing Iranian oil exports in response to Tehran's attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest developments have raised doubts over the future of the June framework agreement between the United States and Iran, as investors question whether both sides can still reach a broader diplomatic settlement. Despite the renewed conflict, U.S. officials indicated that negotiations with Iran remain ongoing.

Beyond geopolitical developments, investor focus has shifted to the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes. Market participants are looking for additional insight into the central bank's policy outlook and the timing of any future interest rate adjustments.

Expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy have been a key driver of gold prices since mid-June. The safe-haven metal recently found support after weaker-than-expected employment data reduced expectations of additional rate hikes this year.

However, the Fed maintained a relatively hawkish tone during its June meeting, with several policymakers expressing support for keeping interest rates higher for longer—a stance that typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Investors will closely analyze the Fed minutes for further details on policymakers' thinking, while any signals from the central bank under its new Chair, Kevin Warsh, are also expected to influence market sentiment and the outlook for gold prices.

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Gold Extends Losses

 

Gold Prices Extend Losses as Fed Minutes Loom and Interest Rate Uncertainty Weighs on Bullion

Gold prices fell further on Tuesday, extending early-session losses as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes. Persistent uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and inflation continued to support the U.S. dollar, limiting demand for the precious metal.

Fresh reports of a vessel being struck in the Strait of Hormuz reignited concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies, adding to inflation fears. The development helped strengthen the U.S. dollar while pressuring precious metals, even as oil prices climbed during Tuesday's trading session.

Spot gold declined 1% to $4,121.25 per ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.9% to $4,132.15 per ounce as of 12:20 WIB.

Other precious metals also retreated after posting strong gains last week. Spot silver dropped 2.1% to $60.760 per ounce, while spot platinum fell 1.2% to $1,614.72 per ounce.

Fed Minutes in Focus for Interest Rate Outlook

Market attention is firmly fixed on the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, which are expected to provide fresh insights into the central bank's interest rate strategy for the remainder of the year.

Investors will also closely monitor the Federal Reserve's communication under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has advocated for reducing the volume of public messaging from the central bank.

Warsh recently reiterated the Fed's commitment to achieving its 2% annual inflation target, reinforcing expectations that policymakers could maintain a restrictive monetary policy if inflation remains elevated.

Gold Struggles Despite Last Week's Rebound

Gold posted a strong recovery last week after weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll data eased concerns over additional interest rate hikes. The softer labor market figures also pushed the U.S. dollar lower from its 13-month high, providing temporary support for bullion.

However, investors remain cautious as persistent inflation continues to fuel expectations that borrowing costs could stay higher for longer. This outlook has kept the U.S. dollar supported while leaving gold trading near its weakest levels of the year.

Despite reaching a record high in January, gold has struggled to sustain upward momentum throughout 2026. Rising interest rate expectations have reduced investor appetite for non-yielding assets, limiting the metal's ability to capitalize on safe-haven demand.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding assets such as gold that generate no yield, making fixed-income investments comparatively more attractive. As a result, gold has surrendered much of its gains recorded earlier in 2026 while losing part of its appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset.

SEO Title: Gold Prices Fall Ahead of Fed Minutes as Interest Rate Uncertainty Strengthens US Dollar

Meta Description: Gold prices decline as investors await the Federal Reserve minutes for clues on interest rates. A stronger US dollar, persistent inflation concerns, and rising oil prices continue to pressure gold and other precious metals.

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