Gold Under Pressure

Gold Heads for Third Straight Weekly Loss as Hawkish Fed Outweighs Iran Ceasefire Optimism

Gold Prices Extend Decline Amid Stronger US Dollar and Hawkish Federal Reserve Outlook

Gold prices continued to slide during Asian trading on Friday and remained on track for a third consecutive weekly loss, as a stronger U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy outlook overshadowed support from a temporary peace agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Spot gold fell 1.8% to $4,134.86 per ounce as of 09:40 WIB, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery declined 2.2% to $4,152.25 per ounce.

The precious metal is now heading for a weekly decline of approximately 2%. Gold initially surged earlier in the week on optimism surrounding the U.S.-Iran peace deal, but sentiment weakened significantly following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.

Federal Reserve Signals Higher Rates for Longer

Market pressure intensified after nine of the Federal Reserve’s 19 policymakers projected at least one additional interest rate hike before the end of the year. The outlook reinforced expectations that borrowing costs could remain elevated for an extended period.

Although the Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, comments from Chair Kevin Warsh were widely interpreted as strongly hawkish. The remarks pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and lifted the U.S. dollar to its strongest level in more than a year.

The U.S. Dollar Index remained largely unchanged during Asian trading after surging 0.8% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since May 2025.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

According to futures market pricing, investors now see more than an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end.

Middle East Peace Talks Uncertainty Adds Pressure to Gold Market

Gold’s weakness was further amplified after Switzerland announced that negotiations for a final agreement to end the Middle East conflict would not take place on Friday as previously anticipated.

Reports indicated that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance suspended plans for talks in Geneva, raising concerns about the durability of the recently announced temporary agreement.

The ceasefire arrangement had been expected to facilitate the reopening of key shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and contributed to a sharp decline in oil prices earlier this week.

However, crude oil prices rebounded on Friday, reigniting inflation concerns and adding another layer of uncertainty for financial markets.

Silver, Platinum, and Copper Prices Also Move Lower

Other precious metals also posted notable losses. Silver prices dropped 2.5% to $64.09 per ounce, while platinum declined 1.4% to $1,674.51 per ounce.

In the industrial metals market, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.9% to $13,582.33 per metric ton. U.S. copper futures also weakened, slipping 1% to $6.30 per pound.

Outlook for Gold

Gold remains vulnerable to further downside pressure as investors reassess expectations for U.S. monetary policy and monitor developments surrounding Middle East peace negotiations. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and the U.S. dollar trading near multi-year highs, the precious metal may continue to face headwinds despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

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Gold Prices Rebound

Gold Prices Rebound as Markets Assess US-Iran Peace Deal and Federal Reserve Rate Outlook

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, recovering from losses recorded in the previous session as investors weighed the impact of a temporary US-Iran peace agreement against the Federal Reserve’s signals of potential interest rate hikes later this year.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,269.42 per ounce as of 16:46 GMT, while gold futures slipped 2.1% to $4,288.72 per ounce.

The precious metal had fallen 1.7% in the prior session after a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields followed the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision.

Bullion prices found support from growing optimism surrounding the US-Iran agreement, which is expected to ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and pave the way for the reopening of critical energy export routes.

The 14-point memorandum initiates a 60-day negotiation period during which Iran will allow toll-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the agreement, traffic through the strategic waterway is expected to return to full capacity within 30 days.

The development has helped reduce concerns over prolonged oil supply disruptions, easing fears of energy-driven inflation while supporting demand for gold as a portfolio hedge against market uncertainty.

However, gains in gold prices remained limited after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday and indicated that policymakers still see room for additional monetary tightening later this year.

Updated projections revealed that nine of the 19 Federal Reserve officials expect at least one interest rate increase in 2026, marking a notable shift from expectations seen earlier this year.

XAU/USD Outlook

In his first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained a hawkish stance on inflation, emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability.

The Fed also raised its inflation forecasts, prompting investors to scale back expectations for future rate cuts and boosting the US dollar.

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold bullion.

As investors continue to monitor monetary policy developments and geopolitical events, gold prices are expected to remain sensitive to changes in inflation expectations, interest rate projections, and global risk sentiment.

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Gold Eyes Fed

Gold Extends Winning Streak to Five Sessions as Iran Deal Eases Inflation Concerns Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold prices edged higher during Asian trading on Wednesday, marking a fifth consecutive session of gains as a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran eased concerns over energy-driven inflation. Meanwhile, investors remained focused on the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy decision later in the day.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,342.56 per ounce as of 09:20 WIB, while U.S. Gold Futures gained 0.3% to $4,368.40 per ounce.

The precious metal has now advanced for five straight trading sessions after rebounding from multi-month lows near the $4,000 per ounce level.

Market sentiment has been supported by growing optimism surrounding the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, which aims to reduce tensions across the Middle East. The deal includes provisions allowing Iran to resume oil exports while extending the ceasefire as negotiations continue.

The agreement has contributed to a sharp decline in crude oil prices, helping to ease fears of another inflationary shock. Lower energy prices have prompted investors to scale back expectations for tighter monetary policy, creating a favorable environment for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Gold has also benefited from continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, with the U.S. Dollar Index hovering near a 10-day low. A softer dollar generally makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, providing additional support for bullion prices.

Focus Shifts to Federal Reserve Policy Decision

Investor attention is now firmly fixed on the Federal Reserve's first policy announcement under Chair Kevin Warsh. While the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders will closely analyze the updated economic projections and the closely watched “dot plot” for clues regarding the future path of monetary policy.

The market remains highly sensitive to any signals indicating whether policymakers still see room for interest rate cuts later this year.

A more hawkish stance from the Fed could push U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher, potentially limiting gold's recent rally. Conversely, dovish signals could further strengthen the precious metal's bullish momentum.

Central Bank Demand Continues to Support Gold

Underlying demand for gold remains robust. According to the latest World Gold Council survey, 45% of central bank reserve managers plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months. The findings highlight gold's enduring appeal as a portfolio diversification tool and a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.

Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.6% to $70.47 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.4% to $1,815.72 per ounce.

XAU/USD Outlook

The near-term outlook for XAU/USD will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and market expectations for future interest rate adjustments. While easing geopolitical risks have improved overall market sentiment, persistent central bank demand and a weaker U.S. dollar continue to provide strong support for gold prices.

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