Gold Awaits Warsh

Gold Prices Hold Steady Ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech

Gold prices were little changed on Friday as investors closely awaited remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, seeking fresh clues on the future path of U.S. interest rates.

Spot gold traded flat at $4,600.19 per ounce as of 13:50 WIB, while U.S. gold futures slipped 0.3% to $4,651.41 per ounce.

The precious metal recently climbed to a three-month high near $4,700 per ounce earlier this week, supported by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and Treasury measures aimed at strengthening demand for long-term government bonds.

Despite the strong rally, gold is on track for a modest weekly decline after posting gains for three consecutive weeks.

Investors Focus on Jackson Hole and Fed Rate Outlook

Market participants remain cautious ahead of Warsh’s highly anticipated speech scheduled for Friday evening. His first major address as Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole is expected to provide important insights into inflation trends and the central bank’s monetary policy strategy.

Recent economic data have complicated expectations for interest-rate cuts. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.7% year-over-year in July, fueling speculation that policymakers could still raise rates later this year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in a 34% probability of a rate hike in September and a 74% chance of an increase by December.

Higher interest rates generally weigh on gold prices because the non-yielding asset becomes less attractive compared with interest-bearing investments such as bonds and savings instruments.

Gold Supported by Weaker Dollar and Lower Bond Yields

While gold struggled to extend its recent gains on Friday, the broader market backdrop remains supportive. The metal has benefited from declining Treasury yields and a softer U.S. dollar, both of which reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion and make it more affordable for overseas buyers.

Even with the latest pullback, gold has surged more than 13% in August, reflecting strong investor demand amid economic uncertainty and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Silver, Platinum, and Copper Advance

Among other precious metals, silver prices rose 1.3% to $70.11 per ounce, while platinum gained 1.8% to $1,882.60 per ounce.

In industrial metals, benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures edged up 0.4% to $14,338.15 per metric ton, while U.S. copper futures added 0.2% to $6.68 per pound, supported by steady demand expectations and broader commodity market strength.

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Gold Near $4,600

Gold Holds Near $4,600 Ahead of Warsh Speech

Gold prices rose on Thursday, moving back toward the $4,650 per ounce level as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s approach to persistent inflation ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

At 08:45, XAU/USD was up 0.7% at $4,625.83 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.6% to $4,680.50. XAG/USD climbed 1.9% to $69.41 per ounce, while XPT/USD advanced 1% to $1,854.30. The US Dollar Index was little changed at 99.12.

Sticky Inflation Supports the Dollar and Treasury Yields

Gold declined 1.4% on Wednesday, ending a five-session winning streak after the latest US inflation data showed that price pressures remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The data pushed the US dollar higher and lifted US Treasury yields, two developments that typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not generate interest and is priced in US dollars.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 3.7% year over year in July, unchanged from June and slightly above economists’ forecast of 3.6%.

Markets responded by modestly increasing expectations for a September rate hike. The probability of at least a 25-basis-point increase has risen to around 40%, compared with approximately 36% before the inflation data was released. Traders also continue to anticipate higher interest rates by the end of the year.

ANZ analysts said the downside for gold could remain limited as ongoing debasement trade continues to attract buyers.

The latest inflation figures also came alongside signs of resilience in the broader US economy. Second-quarter GDP growth remained unchanged at 1.5%, personal income increased 0.4% in July, while consumer spending was flat.

Warsh Speech Becomes the Next Key Test

Attention now turns to Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, his first major address as Federal Reserve Chair. Investors will be watching closely for clues about how he plans to respond to inflation that has remained above the Fed’s 2% target for an extended period.

Warsh faces pressure to provide greater clarity after moving away from traditional forward guidance since taking office. Investors also want him to address the interaction between monetary policy and the bond market, particularly after the US Treasury doubled its planned purchases of longer-dated government debt.

ANZ noted that recent Treasury measures and growing concerns over fiscal policy have helped sustain the debasement trade. In simple terms, investors are buying gold as a hedge against the risk that persistent deficits, heavy borrowing, and policies designed to contain long-term yields could weaken the purchasing power of the US dollar.

This theme has provided a counterbalance to the interest-rate pressures created by persistent inflation. Gold remains around 14% higher this month despite Wednesday’s pullback, following renewed momentum from Treasury intervention.

The precious metal also remains above its 200-day moving average, a widely watched indicator of long-term market momentum.

Meanwhile, gold-backed ETFs have recorded strong inflows during the latest rally, while continued central-bank demand and concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal policy are supporting the long-term outlook for gold.

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Gold Eyes Breakout

Gold Holds Above $4,650 as Traders Await US PCE Data for Fed Rate Clues

Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their two-way trading pattern for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, holding above the $4,650 level during Asian trading hours. The precious metal remains close to its highest level since May 14 as investors await the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation gauge that could provide fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

Gold Rally Faces Resistance Near Key Technical Levels

The recent breakout above the important $4,500 psychological level marked a significant bullish development for gold. This area coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-June decline, making it a critical support zone for buyers.

However, the subsequent rally has struggled to gain acceptance above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that traders should remain cautious before anticipating a sustained move higher.

Technical indicators present a mixed but generally constructive picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is hovering near 72, signaling overbought conditions and indicating that bullish momentum may be vulnerable to a period of consolidation. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains firmly in positive territory, reinforcing the broader bullish bias despite stretched momentum.

For now, gold bulls appear reluctant to make aggressive bets until prices decisively break above the $4,700 resistance level.

Key Gold Price Levels to Watch

A sustained move above $4,700 could open the door toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,856, followed by the 78.6% retracement near $5,104. Beyond that, attention could shift to the cycle high around $5,421.

On the downside, immediate support is located near the 200-day SMA at $4,522 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,508. A deeper pullback could expose the 23.6% retracement level at $4,292, followed by a major structural support zone around $3,944.

Fed Expectations and Treasury Buybacks Support Gold

Market expectations have increasingly shifted toward a pause in interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 15–16. Cooling inflation pressures and a softer labor market have reduced the urgency for further monetary tightening.

At the same time, the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback strategy has contributed to a further decline in Treasury yields. Senior officials have indicated that the Treasury could use part of its nearly $1 trillion General Account balance to finance recently announced plans aimed at increasing purchases of longer-dated government bonds.

Lower Treasury yields generally benefit gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making bullion more attractive to investors.

Middle East Developments Weigh on Oil and Support Gold

Gold has also received support from falling crude oil prices as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing.

Oil prices dropped to their lowest level in nearly two weeks after Iran announced that it had resumed discussions with Oman regarding commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Both countries reportedly explored the possibility of establishing a temporary joint navigation corridor through the strategically important waterway.

In addition, the United States has reportedly offered sanctions relief and an end to maritime restrictions in exchange for the reopening of the Strait and a halt to attacks by Iran-backed regional proxies.

These developments have revived hopes for a diplomatic solution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, helping to reduce inflation concerns through lower energy prices. Softer inflation expectations have placed additional downward pressure on U.S. bond yields, limiting demand for the U.S. dollar and providing further support for gold prices.

Gold Outlook Remains Bullish but $4,700 Is Key

Despite strong bullish momentum, traders remain cautious ahead of the U.S. PCE inflation report and continue to watch the critical $4,700 resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this barrier could trigger a fresh wave of buying and strengthen the case for further gains in gold prices.

Until then, investors are likely to remain focused on incoming economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, Treasury market developments, and geopolitical events that continue to shape the outlook for both the U.S. dollar and precious metals.

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Gold Rally Continues

Gold Surges Above $4,650 Amid Rising U.S. Fiscal Concerns

Gold prices extended their rally on Monday, climbing above $4,650 per ounce and strengthening their position at a three-month high as concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and Treasury efforts to lower long-term borrowing costs continued to boost demand for the precious metal.

As of 2:42 PM WIB, XAU/USD gained 1% to $4,650.63 per ounce, while Gold Futures advanced 0.6% to $4,706.89. Silver (XAG/USD) edged up 0.2% to $69.15 per ounce, while platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.6% to $1,892.51. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 98.88.

U.S. Treasury Intervention Revives Dollar-Bearish Trade

Gold continued its strong upward momentum after posting gains of more than 5% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly advance. The precious metal traded above $4,620 per ounce on Monday, building on Friday’s 1.9% gain and remaining near its highest level in three months.

The latest rally is closely linked to the U.S. Treasury’s unexpected decision to expand purchases of long-dated government bonds. The move pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, reviving investment strategies that favor hard assets such as gold when confidence in the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies weakens.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later suggested that the government could further expand its bond buyback program and indicated that additional fiscal initiatives aimed at addressing elevated government borrowing costs would be announced soon.

Beyond lower yields, the Treasury’s intervention has sparked broader concerns about whether policymakers are becoming increasingly willing to manage borrowing costs directly rather than allowing the bond market to determine them freely.

Analysts at ANZ noted that the Treasury’s actions have intensified concerns about the U.S. fiscal position. According to the bank, gold’s move above $4,500 reflects expectations that policymakers will continue efforts to keep long-term yields under control, while sustained pressure on the U.S. dollar encourages investors to increase exposure to bullion.

These concerns have become even more pronounced after U.S. government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, while the dollar fell to its lowest level in more than three months.

Gold Demand Strengthens as Debt Concerns Rise

Investor appetite for gold continues to expand as the Treasury-driven rally gains momentum. According to ANZ analysts, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest daily inflow since September 2025 and extended a streak of net inflows to five consecutive weeks.

Technical indicators also remain supportive. Gold has moved above its 200-day moving average near $4,513, a level widely monitored by traders as a signal that the long-term trend has turned more bullish. The next major technical target is seen around $4,700 per ounce if momentum remains intact.

At the same time, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support demand for safe-haven assets and stores of value.

Gold has now moved well beyond the $4,000-per-ounce level that previously served as a key support zone during earlier corrections. Continued central bank purchases and rising ETF demand have further reinforced the metal’s recovery, highlighting its appeal as investors seek protection against fiscal risks, currency weakness, and market uncertainty.

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Antam Gold Surges

Antam Gold Jumps 3% as UBS Raises Long-Term Gold Price Target to $5,400

Indonesia’s Antam gold prices surged sharply on Thursday (August 20, 2026), climbing Rp80,000, or around 3%, to Rp2,725,000 per gram from Rp2,645,000 per gram a day earlier. The rally marks the strongest daily increase in recent sessions, following a Rp50,000 decline recorded on Wednesday.

Global Gold Rally Lifts Antam Prices

The sharp rise in Antam gold prices mirrors the strong performance of global gold markets, where bullion prices gained nearly 3% amid continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The depreciation of the U.S. currency boosted demand for gold as investors sought safe-haven assets and inflation hedges.

Antam’s buyback price also increased by Rp80,000, reaching Rp2,585,000 per gram. Despite the latest surge, Antam gold remains approximately 14% below its all-time high of Rp3,168,000 per gram, recorded on January 29, 2026.

On a year-to-date basis, however, the precious metal continues to deliver solid gains. Antam gold has risen roughly 9.5% since the beginning of the year, when prices stood at Rp2,488,000 per gram, highlighting sustained investor interest in gold amid global economic uncertainty.

UBS Sees Gold Reaching $5,400 per Ounce

In the international market, Swiss banking giant UBS has raised its long-term forecast for gold prices, projecting XAU/USD to reach $5,400 per ounce by September 2027. The bank cited expectations of further disinflation and a less restrictive U.S. monetary policy environment as key drivers behind the bullish outlook.

According to UBS, easing inflationary pressures could encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a more accommodative stance, while broader U.S. dollar weakness is expected to provide additional support for gold prices over the coming years.

Despite the upgraded long-term target, UBS maintained its end-2026 gold price forecast at $4,600 per ounce, signaling confidence that the precious metal will remain supported by macroeconomic and monetary policy trends.

Fed Rate Outlook Remains Key Catalyst

Gold prices have recently advanced as investors reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. Softer U.S. labor market data has strengthened expectations that policymakers may keep rates unchanged if inflation continues to remain under control.

Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators and Fed commentary for clues about the future path of monetary policy. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making the metal more attractive to investors.

With central bank policy, inflation trends, and currency movements continuing to shape market sentiment, gold remains one of the most closely watched assets in global financial markets.

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UBS Targets $5,400

UBS Raises Gold Price Target to $5,400

UBS has extended its gold price forecast by one quarter, setting a new target of $5,400 per ounce for the end of September 2027. The bank expects further upside for gold, supported by declining real interest rates, sustained investment demand, and a weaker US dollar.

The new forecast assumes that disinflation in 2027 will allow the US Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. UBS strategists also expect broad-based weakness in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the bank has maintained its end-2026 gold price target at $4,600 per ounce.

Gold prices have risen in recent sessions as investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy and the direction of the dollar. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s near-term interest-rate path, combined with weaker US labor market data, has strengthened expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates unchanged if inflation remains under control.

Investment demand for gold has also improved. Gold ETF inflows have resumed, initially led by China and more recently by Europe, while central bank purchases remain strong. According to the World Gold Council, central banks recorded net gold purchases of 51 metric tons in June. The People’s Bank of China added another 20 metric tons to its reserves in July, marking its largest monthly increase since October 2023.

Three Key Drivers for Higher Gold Prices

UBS strategists identified three conditions that could allow the gold rally to continue: a sustained decline in the US dollar, lower expected US real interest rates, and stronger investor demand.

The bank’s base case assumes that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in September, although UBS highlighted uncertainty over the possibility of additional rate increases later this year.

On the demand side, UBS estimates that approximately 500 metric tons of investment demand per quarter could be required for gold to trade sustainably at or above the $5,000-per-ounce level.

Gold Outlook for 2027

The higher long-term forecast reflects UBS’s view that disinflation could become a more prominent theme in 2027. Favorable base effects and expectations that US economic activity will remain at or below trend could put additional pressure on the dollar and provide further support for gold prices.

With this outlook in mind and options volatility remaining above 20%, UBS strategists favor volatility-selling strategies, including selling downside gold price risk to generate additional returns.

UBS also sees potential buying opportunities if gold prices experience a correction. The bank said that a decline toward $4,000 per ounce could offer an opportunity to increase gold exposure.

Key Risk to the Gold Forecast

The main risk to UBS’s bullish gold outlook is another Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Higher interest rates could push real yields higher, strengthen the US dollar, and weaken investment demand for gold.

Under this bearish scenario, UBS estimates that gold prices could decline and potentially test the $3,850-per-ounce level.

Overall, UBS remains bullish on gold over the longer term, with its $5,400 target for September 2027 signaling confidence that lower real yields, weaker dollar conditions, and sustained investment demand could continue to support the precious metal.

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Gold Nears $4,450

Gold Rebounds Toward $4,450 Amid US Policy Uncertainty

Gold prices are rebounding toward $4,450 per ounce as uncertainty surrounding the US policy mix continues to increase, according to Bank of America (BofA). The precious metal is moving alongside EUR/USD as investors reassess monetary policy, fiscal sustainability, and exchange-rate management.

US-Japan intervention, viewed as a form of quantitative easing, has added to the trend. Growing questions over Treasury market support, the potential use of the Federal Reserve’s FIMA facility, and central bank independence highlight the increasingly complex relationship between interest rates, liquidity, and government finances. Gold typically benefits when policy signals become more difficult for markets to interpret.

Key US Economic Events Ahead

Several major events could influence gold prices in the coming weeks. Investors will closely monitor the US PCE inflation report on August 26, the Jackson Hole symposium from August 27-29, and the FOMC meeting on September 16. A more dovish Federal Reserve policy stance would likely provide further bullish support for gold.

Gold prices have averaged around $4,360 per ounce year-to-date, while investment demand has increased 7.3% year-over-year. Scrap supply and fabrication demand have proven less price-sensitive than previously expected. Gold holders remain reluctant to sell, while end-users continue to absorb higher prices.

Investment Demand Remains Crucial

BofA's model suggests that current investor purchases are more consistent with gold prices near $4,000 per ounce rather than $5,000, with the latter level associated with approximately 21% year-over-year growth in investment demand. Therefore, investment demand may need to accelerate significantly for gold to advance toward the $5,000 per ounce threshold.

Central bank purchases are already providing a supportive backdrop. Central banks bought 51 tons of gold in June, well above the 12-month average of 27 tons. However, sustained gains in gold prices are also likely to require a recovery in gold ETF inflows, which remain an important source of investment demand.

China Strengthens Its Gold Strategy

China's gold imports have reached a series of record highs this year, underscoring the country's growing strategic interest in the precious metal. China views gold as a potential tool for supporting the internationalization of the yuan.

By integrating the gold market more closely with RMB-denominated trade, clearing, and settlement, Beijing is gradually expanding alternatives to the dollar-centered financial system. HKPMCC represents an important step in this broader strategy.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council's Gold247 initiative aims to make gold bullion easier to transfer, track, and use as collateral while maintaining a direct connection to physical gold. Such developments could further enhance gold's role within the global financial system.

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Gold Fed Outlook

 

Gold Pulls Back From Two-Month High as Traders Reassess Fed Outlook After Soft CPI

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday after retreating from a more than two-month high as investors weighed softer-than-expected inflation pressure against renewed concerns that higher energy prices could keep the Federal Reserve cautious about interest-rate policy.

At 13:54 WIB, XAU/USD fell 0.5% to $4,388.64 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures declined 0.5% to $4,446.12. Silver also weakened, with XAG/USD down 0.4% at $65.08 per troy ounce, while XPT/USD slipped 0.6% to $1,746.71.

Soft US CPI Eases Near-Term Fed Rate Concerns

Gold surged as much as 0.9% on Wednesday to around $4,450, its highest level in more than two months, before giving up part of the advance. Spot gold continued to retreat during early Thursday trading, falling around 0.5%.

The precious metal initially gained about 1% after US consumer prices rose just 0.1% in July from the previous month, in line with market expectations. The data suggested that energy-related price pressures linked to the Iran conflict have yet to generate a stronger inflationary impact.

The softer CPI reading reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. CME FedWatch showed that markets were pricing in roughly a 38%-40% probability of a September rate hike, down from about 46% before the CPI release.

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its July meeting, although three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate increase.

Markets are now turning their attention to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for another indication of inflation trends ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting.

Additional US employment and inflation data will be released before the September decision. Investors are also expected to closely monitor Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at the Jackson Hole symposium later this month for clues about how policymakers are balancing inflation risks against economic growth.

Higher interest rates generally remain a headwind for gold because the precious metal does not generate interest income.

Hormuz Uncertainty Keeps Energy Risks in Focus

While softer inflation data reduced expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike, investors have already taken some profits following gold's initial bullish reaction.

Efforts to resolve the US-Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain intermittent, while restrictions continue to affect the strategically important shipping route. Oil prices are heading toward weekly gains as traders monitor the latest attempts by Washington and Tehran to reach a resolution.

The US Dollar Index was largely unchanged near 99.96, providing limited fresh direction for gold. Lower US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar had previously supported the gold rally, although those moves have since moderated.

Gold continues to receive support from renewed demand after holding above the key psychological $4,000 level. Chinese demand has also remained an important source of support, with the People's Bank of China extending its gold-buying trend while investor appetite for the precious metal recovers following earlier selling pressure.

From a technical perspective, gold moved above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April this week, strengthening the broader bullish outlook.

Gold Market Outlook

Gold's recent pullback does not necessarily signal a reversal of the broader uptrend. Traders are likely to focus on upcoming US inflation and employment data, Fed policy expectations, Treasury yields, the US dollar, and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

If inflation remains contained and expectations for lower interest rates increase, gold could regain bullish momentum. However, persistent energy-price pressures and a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance could limit further gains in the near term.

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Gold Nears $4,400

Gold Nears $4,400 as Investors Await U.S. Inflation Data for Fed Signals

Gold prices extended their gains on Wednesday, holding near the $4,400-per-ounce level as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. Market participants were also monitoring uncertainty surrounding efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At 14:22 WIB, XAU/USD rose 0.7% to $4,400.02 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.4% to $4,459.30. XAG/USD climbed 1.8% to $65.88 per ounce, while XPT/USD advanced 0.7% to $1,755.16.

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Hormuz Uncertainty Supports Oil Prices as Fed Rate Outlook Remains in Focus

Gold remained supported near a two-month high as investors reassessed the prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s defense minister said Washington and Tehran were close to reaching an agreement, while reports of further talks between Oman and Iran suggested that diplomatic efforts were still underway.

However, Iran said the waterway would remain closed until the United States met its demands, including lifting the blockade on Iranian ports and providing compensation for damage caused by U.S. military strikes.

The conflicting signals have kept energy markets volatile. The United States and Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen reported separate attacks involving vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Meanwhile, a U.S. Navy helicopter fired missiles at a Panama-flagged cargo vessel attempting to transit the Gulf of Oman.

A drone attack also targeted an oil refinery in Libya.

For gold, the inflationary implications remain a key market driver. Higher energy prices could encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

CPI, Chinese Gold Buying, and Technical Resistance Set the Next Test

Investors are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday. A weaker-than-expected inflation reading could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, while a hotter-than-expected figure could revive expectations for higher interest rates.

Markets have remained cautious ahead of the CPI release, with swap markets pricing roughly a 50-50 chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) increased its gold reserves for the 21st consecutive month in July, adding approximately 640,000 troy ounces and bringing total holdings to 76.08 million ounces. China-based gold ETFs have also continued to attract buyers, reinforcing signs of stronger institutional demand in recent weeks.

Tony Sycamore, senior market analyst at IG, said gold’s recent pullback from $4,435 reflected profit-taking ahead of the CPI report, hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, and a renewed rise in energy prices.

Sycamore noted that gold is now facing descending trendline resistance around $4,460, drawn from the late-January record high near $5,602. The 200-day moving average around $4,495 adds another layer of resistance.

According to Sycamore, gold would need a sustained break above both levels to open the door to a stronger recovery toward the $5,000 level.

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Gold Price Surges

Gold Price Hits More Than Two-Month High as Iran Talks and US Inflation Take Center Stage

Gold prices extended their rally on Tuesday, with the precious metal holding near its highest level in more than two months as renewed buying momentum outweighed pressure from a stronger US dollar, higher Treasury yields, and rising energy prices.

At 11:56 WIB, XAU/USD was up 0.4% at $4,407.79 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 1.1% to $4,467.59. Meanwhile, XAG/USD fell 0.5% to $65.41 per ounce, while XPT/USD edged 0.2% higher to $1,761.10.

Gold Gains Momentum Ahead of US Inflation Data

The latest gold price rally follows a 2.4% surge on Friday after data showed that US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined in July. Gold also closed Monday at around $4,390, gaining 1.11% and marking its highest daily close in nearly 10 weeks.

The strength of the gold market is particularly notable because the US dollar, Treasury yields, and energy prices have also moved higher — factors that would traditionally weigh on non-yielding gold.

Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, said the resilience in gold prices reflects a combination of fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) buying from investors who missed the decline toward $4,000, short-covering among speculative traders, and renewed demand for safe-haven assets.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data scheduled for Thursday. The inflation reports could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path and influence the next move in gold prices.

According to CME FedWatch, markets are currently pricing in a 52% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and an 81% probability of a rate hike in December.

Gold typically becomes less attractive when interest rates rise because the precious metal does not generate interest income. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, strong safe-haven demand, and shifting expectations for US monetary policy could continue to support gold prices in the near term.

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Gold Near Highs

Gold Holds Near 7-Week High as Iran Uncertainty and Fed Outlook Drive Markets

Gold prices edged higher on Monday after reaching a seven-week high in the previous session, as investors monitored ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and awaited key US inflation data for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) rose 0.3% to $4,354.51 per ounce at 10:03 WIB, while US Gold Futures also gained 0.3% to $4,414.40.

Gold prices climbed to their highest level since June 17 on Friday after data showed that the US economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July, while a sharp downward revision to the previous month’s employment growth further highlighted signs of weakness in the labor market.

The weaker-than-expected employment data prompted traders to significantly scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Futures markets now price the probability of a rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting at below 50%, compared with more than 50% previously.

Lower interest rates generally support non-yielding assets such as gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Softer-than-expected inflation readings could strengthen expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy and provide further support for gold prices.

Geopolitical Risks Keep Gold Supported

Geopolitical uncertainty remains another key driver of demand for precious metals. Iran said it was approaching a final agreement with Oman to establish a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, although Tehran stressed that Washington still needs to meet several conditions before the strategically important waterway can fully reopen.

Geopolitical tensions typically support gold by increasing demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. However, renewed gains in oil prices could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially limit expectations for Federal Reserve monetary easing.

Elsewhere in the precious metals market, silver prices rose 1.3% to $64.36 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.5% to $1,757.64.

Benchmark London Metal Exchange copper futures edged 0.6% higher to $14,126.33 per metric ton, while US copper futures advanced 0.7% to $6.635 per pound.

“Copper has rallied sharply on expectations of US import tariffs, as traders rush to move the metal into the US and physical markets become increasingly tight,” ING analysts said in a recent note. “With prices once again approaching record highs, disappointment over tariff policy could put the tariff premium to the test.”

Gold Market Outlook

Gold remains supported by a combination of softer US labor-market conditions, shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, and persistent geopolitical risks. Investors will closely monitor the upcoming US inflation data, which could determine the next major direction for XAU/USD.

If inflation comes in below expectations, markets may increase bets on a more dovish Fed stance, potentially supporting gold’s upward momentum. Conversely, stronger inflation could push back expectations for monetary easing and limit further gains in the precious metal.

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Gold Futures Rally

 

Why Are Gold Futures Rising Today?

Gold futures climbed 1.8% to $4,375.4 during today's session, extending a multi-day rally as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data continued to fuel demand for the precious metal. Investors remain cautious as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has reinforced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Risk sentiment remains fragile after renewed concerns over the Strait of Hormuz raised doubts about the prospects for a lasting U.S.-Iran peace agreement. According to Iran's semi-official media, a parliamentary committee is reviewing draft legislation that would prohibit vessels from the United States, Israel, and other "hostile" nations from transiting the strategic waterway. The proposal could impose penalties of up to 20% of a ship's cargo value for violations, increasing fears of disruptions to global energy supplies.

Gold had already gained momentum following a disappointing ADP Employment Report, which showed a sharp slowdown in U.S. private-sector hiring during July. Most new jobs were concentrated in the healthcare sector, highlighting broader weakness in the labor market. The softer employment data reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, boosting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

The precious metal briefly surged above the $4,300 level on Thursday as optimism surrounding a potential Hormuz agreement encouraged buying. However, the rally lost some momentum after renewed geopolitical tensions revived concerns that higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a September rate hike following reports that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise borrowing costs if inflation remains persistent.

Meanwhile, U.S. equity markets delivered mixed performances on Thursday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.4% as rising oil prices and mixed corporate earnings pulled stocks back from record highs. Today, however, sentiment has stabilized, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.2% and the Nasdaq advancing 0.5%. This suggests that gold's strength is being driven primarily by commodity-specific fundamentals and broader macroeconomic factors rather than a broad flight from risk assets.

From a technical perspective, gold prices continue to trade above both the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), preserving a bullish near-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 indicates strong positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory, leaving room for additional upside.

Overall, expectations for a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a weaker U.S. dollar, have supported gold's recent rally. A weekly close above $4,330 would strengthen the bullish breakout scenario. Spot gold has now posted gains for four consecutive sessions, although analysts believe further upside will likely depend on continued weakness in U.S. economic data or meaningful progress in Hormuz negotiations. Today's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to serve as the next major catalyst for gold prices and could determine the metal's short-term direction.

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Gold Holds High

 

Gold Price Trims Gains, Holds Near Seven-Week High on Hormuz Optimism

Gold prices pared earlier gains on Thursday but remained close to a seven-week high as growing optimism over a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continued to ease inflation concerns and reduce expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

As of 11:57 WIB (04:57 GMT), spot gold (XAU/USD) rose 0.4% to $4,262.54 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.4% to $4,321.65 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) climbed 0.2% to $62.17 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) advanced 1.3% to $1,756.50 per ounce.

Gold Holds Firm Despite Profit-Taking as Hormuz Optimism Supports Sentiment

Gold continued to find support even as traders booked profits, following reports that progress toward a diplomatic agreement involving the Strait of Hormuz could reduce geopolitical risks and stabilize global energy markets.

According to Reuters, a draft agreement between Iran and Oman aimed at ending the five-month conflict between Tehran and Washington would grant Iran authority over vessels entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal has raised hopes that disruptions to global energy supplies could ease, helping to improve overall market sentiment.

Crude oil prices declined on expectations that the agreement could reduce tensions in the region and lower the risk of supply disruptions. Softer energy prices have also eased inflation expectations, prompting investors to scale back bets on additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Market pricing now indicates a 55% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, down from approximately 67% earlier this week, reflecting a notable shift in investor expectations.

At the same time, lower U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar Index continued to support bullion prices. Since gold does not generate interest, falling bond yields and a softer dollar increase its appeal by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.

With geopolitical developments, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and U.S. macroeconomic data remaining in focus, gold prices are likely to stay sensitive to changes in market sentiment in the coming sessions.

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Gold Eyes $4,150

Gold Hits Two-Week High, Targets $4,150 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Fade

Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their bullish momentum for a second consecutive session, climbing to their highest level in nearly two weeks around $4,141 during Wednesday's Asian trading session. The precious metal continued to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar and easing expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening amid improving geopolitical sentiment.

Gold Breaks Key Resistance as Bullish Technical Signals Strengthen

From a technical standpoint, gold's daily breakout above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart reinforces the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 65, indicating strong upward momentum without yet reaching extreme overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, signaling that buyers continue to dominate the short-term trend.

Despite the bullish momentum, the rally may encounter immediate resistance around the $4,130–$4,150 region, where increasingly overbought conditions could slow additional gains if buying interest begins to fade.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 200-period EMA near $4,115. A decisive break below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward the daily low around $4,065, followed by the $4,043–$4,042 support zone, $4,020, and eventually the key $4,000 psychological level.

Hormuz Deal Optimism Reduces Inflation Fears and Pressures the U.S. Dollar

Investor sentiment has improved as markets continue to anticipate a diplomatic breakthrough that could end the five-month conflict between the United States and Iran.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington could reach an agreement with Iran as early as Wednesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, helping restore normal shipping operations through one of the world's most strategically important energy corridors.

Separately, Axios, citing sources familiar with the negotiations, reported that the United States, Iran, and Oman are close to finalizing a temporary agreement to reopen the waterway.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it would increase oil production starting in September, easing concerns over global supply disruptions and pushing crude oil prices to their lowest level since June 13.

Lower oil prices have reduced inflation expectations, encouraging investors to scale back bets on additional Federal Reserve tightening. The softer inflation outlook has weighed on the U.S. dollar while increasing demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Fed Officials Remain Hawkish Ahead of Key U.S. Employment Data

Despite the recent decline in Fed rate hike expectations, traders continue to price in the possibility of one additional interest rate increase before the end of the year, supported by signs that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings slipped slightly to 7.36 million, but remained above levels seen a year earlier, suggesting labor demand continues to hold up.

Federal Reserve officials also maintained a cautious tone. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson both reiterated support for maintaining restrictive monetary policy and keeping interest rates elevated until inflation returns sustainably toward the central bank's target.

Their comments may prevent aggressive bearish positioning against the U.S. dollar ahead of Friday's highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI in Focus

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor Wednesday's U.S. economic calendar, including the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Services PMI, for fresh clues on the health of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's policy path.

At the same time, developments surrounding the Middle East crisis are expected to remain a key catalyst for both the U.S. dollar and gold prices.

Overall, the combination of improving technical indicators, easing inflation concerns, and fading expectations of aggressive Fed tightening continues to support the bullish outlook for XAU/USD, leaving the precious metal well-positioned to challenge the $4,150 resistance area in the near term.

SEO Title: Gold Reaches Two-Week High as Fading Fed Rate Hike Bets Boost XAU/USD Toward $4,150

Meta Description: Gold climbs to a two-week high near $4,141 as easing Fed rate hike expectations, weaker U.S. dollar, Hormuz deal optimism, and bullish technical signals drive XAU/USD toward the $4,150 resistance. 

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Gold Recovery Ahead

Gold Could Rebound If Real Interest Rate Pressure Eases, Says Jefferies

Gold prices may be poised for a recovery if pressure from rising real interest rates begins to ease, according to a new analysis from Jefferies. After several months of losses, the precious metal is now trading near the $4,000 per ounce level, with interest rate expectations remaining the key driver of investor sentiment.

Jefferies noted that the historical relationship between gold prices and real interest rates has re-emerged, making monetary policy expectations a crucial factor for the precious metal. As real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold increases, often weighing on prices. However, history suggests that once real rate pressures begin to fade, gold and gold mining stocks tend to outperform over the following year.

The investment bank highlighted that the market has undergone a dramatic shift in interest rate expectations since the beginning of 2026. Earlier forecasts anticipated one or two Federal Reserve rate cuts, but markets are now pricing in one or two potential rate hikes. This reversal has contributed to an estimated 25% decline in gold prices from their record highs, while weaker central bank purchases during the first quarter of 2026 also reduced support for the metal.

Jefferies examined previous periods of sharply rising real interest rates, including the 2013 taper tantrum, the 2018 real-rate peak, and the 2022 Federal Reserve tightening cycle. During these episodes, gold prices fell by 22.9%, 5.0%, and 6.7%, respectively, while gold mining equities experienced even steeper declines of 35.3%, 17.0%, and 28.6%.

Although short-term performance was negative in each case, the following 12 months produced mixed results. Gold mining stocks showed little recovery after the 2013 sell-off, surged following the 2018 peak, and posted a moderate rebound after the 2022 tightening cycle. According to Jefferies, the determining factor was whether real interest rate pressure eased after reaching its peak.

Current market data show that the 10-year TIPS real yield stands near 2.41%, while the Cleveland Fed's 10-year real interest rate is around 2.08%, both significantly higher than levels seen at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate remains relatively stable at approximately 2.27%. Reflecting the challenging environment, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF has declined about 13% over the past three months, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has fallen roughly 17%.

Despite the recent weakness, Jefferies believes the market has already absorbed much of the impact from higher real interest rates. Unlike previous rate-driven sell-offs, gold now benefits from several structural tailwinds, including stronger central bank buying during the second quarter of 2026, persistent geopolitical tensions, growing fiscal concerns, continued de-dollarization efforts, and increased investor allocations to hard assets.

The firm also noted that interest rate markets remain heavily skewed toward tighter monetary policy, with implied rates rising into 2027 and markets assigning a relatively high probability of further Federal Reserve tightening. However, Jefferies cautioned that this outlook could shift rapidly if geopolitical tensions—particularly the conflict involving the United States and Iran—ease, potentially reducing inflation risks and changing the path of monetary policy.

While higher real interest rates continue to challenge the gold market in the near term, Jefferies argues that easing rate pressure could provide the catalyst for a meaningful recovery in both bullion and gold mining stocks over the coming year.

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Gold Extends Gains

Gold Prices Rise as Weaker US Dollar Offsets Federal Reserve Rate Concerns

Gold prices advanced on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar after crude oil prices plunged amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, investors remained cautious ahead of a busy week of key US economic data that could shape the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy decision.

As of 08:43 WIB (0143 GMT), spot gold (XAU/USD) climbed 0.5% to $4,062.41 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.3% to $4,117.35. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) rose 0.6% to $57.98 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) edged 0.3% higher to $1,650.18 per ounce.

Falling Oil Prices and Weak US Dollar Support Gold

Gold benefited after US President Donald Trump stated that Iran and several Middle Eastern countries requested additional time to finalize an agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease concerns over Tehran's nuclear program. The announcement reduced market expectations of an immediate escalation in regional tensions.

The comments triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices, with oil falling more than $5 per barrel during early Asian trading. Lower energy prices eased fears of prolonged supply disruptions that could fuel inflation and strengthen the case for more aggressive monetary tightening.

At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained under pressure, slipping below the 100.00 level to around 99.7. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for overseas buyers, increasing demand for the precious metal and providing additional upside momentum.

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Gold Monthly Rebound

Gold Prices Slip but Remain on Track for First Monthly Gain in Five Months

Gold prices declined on Friday but remained on course for their first monthly gain since February, as investors reassessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates following the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting earlier this week.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,054.20 per ounce as of 10:57 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 1.2% to $4,049.30 per ounce.

Gold found some support after June inflation data came in lower than expected, reinforcing expectations that inflationary pressures may be easing. The report, based on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, prompted investors to reassess the central bank's next policy move after officials left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to address inflation risks, signaling that additional rate hikes remain possible if price pressures intensify. However, he also suggested that bond markets may already be tightening financial conditions on behalf of the Fed, leaving traders uncertain about the central bank's next step.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign roughly a 63% probability of a September rate hike, down significantly from more than 80% just one week ago.

Analysts at ING noted that investors remain cautious, saying the market is concerned that the Federal Reserve may hesitate to translate its commitment to price stability into more aggressive monetary tightening.

Expectations that the Fed could delay further interest rate increases have provided support for gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar edged higher after posting its biggest daily decline since January 2023 on Thursday. A stronger dollar typically weighs on gold prices by making the precious metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Despite Friday's decline, spot gold is still up approximately 1% in July, putting the precious metal on track for its first monthly advance in five months. Gold has faced persistent pressure throughout 2026 as elevated oil prices fueled inflation concerns, increasing expectations that major central banks could maintain a more hawkish monetary policy stance for longer.

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Gold Rally Fades

 

Gold Slips as Fed Optimism Fades and Stronger US Dollar Weighs on Prices

Gold prices retreated on Thursday as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook following the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. A stronger US dollar and a rebound in US Treasury yields also pressured the precious metal, limiting its recent gains.

As of 11:44 WIB, XAU/USD fell 0.4% to $4,049.99 per ounce, after earlier climbing to a one-week high of $4,100.42 in the aftermath of the Fed's policy announcement. Meanwhile, Gold Futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20, silver (XAG/USD) declined 0.6% to $57.32, and platinum (XPT/USD) dropped 1.3% to $1,597.87.

Gold Rally Loses Momentum After Fed Holds Rates Steady

Gold initially rallied after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as declining US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar Index boosted demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

However, the rally quickly lost steam after investors digested comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who reiterated the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation back to its long-term 2% target despite maintaining its current monetary policy stance.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was last trading near 100.9, while benchmark Treasury yields recovered from their post-decision lows, reducing the upside potential for gold.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in approximately a 64% probability of a September interest rate hike, down from around 81% before the Fed's policy announcement, reflecting a notable shift in market expectations.

Middle East Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Elevated

Geopolitical tensions also remained in focus after the United States launched fresh strikes against Iran overnight. US Central Command described the operation as a "strong response" to what it called an attempted Iranian attack on American forces the previous day.

Earlier, President Donald Trump vowed to retaliate against Tehran, stating that the United States would respond decisively after the military intercepted what he described as a surprise Iranian attack targeting US troops.

The renewed escalation has kept oil prices elevated as traders assess the risk of further disruptions to global energy supplies. Shipping concerns have also intensified after the Iran-backed Houthi group warned it would target Saudi vessels attempting to reach the Indian Ocean, prompting several oil tankers to seek alternative routes.

Persistent strength in energy markets has reinforced concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer, complicating the Federal Reserve's path toward future monetary policy easing.

US PCE Inflation Data in Focus

Investors are now awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, for fresh clues on inflation trends and the future direction of interest rates.

Market attention will also shift to upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) later this week, with both central banks widely expected to leave their benchmark interest rates unchanged.

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