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Gold Price Pulls Back but Holds Above $5,140 Support as Bullish Structure Remains Intact
Gold price paused its recent rally toward the monthly high of $5,250 during Tuesday’s Asian session, but downside pressure remains limited as key technical support near $5,140 continues to hold.
The US Dollar (USD) regained modest strength amid improving liquidity conditions as Chinese and Japanese markets reopened. Risk sentiment stabilized despite lingering uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. Even so, gold remains technically supported, with momentum indicators signaling a sustained bullish bias.
Technical Outlook: Fibonacci Support and Bullish Moving Averages
From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade above the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5,141, measured from the swing high of $5,597.89 to the low of $4,401.99. This level is acting as immediate support following the recent pullback.
Meanwhile, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs — all sloping upward — confirming a strong bullish structure. The 21-day SMA at $5,029.61 provides dynamic near-term support.
The 14-day RSI stands at 59.50, slightly above the midline, reinforcing steady upside momentum without signaling overbought conditions.
Gold is currently consolidating between the:
61.8% retracement at $5,141.05
78.6% retracement at $5,341.96
A daily close above the 78.6% Fibonacci level could pave the way for a retest of previous record highs. Conversely, rejection at that level may trigger a corrective move toward the 50-day SMA at $4,742.30. As long as price action respects short-term moving averages, the near-term bias favors consolidation within the retracement range before a directional breakout emerges.
US Tariff Uncertainty and Nvidia Earnings Weigh on Market Sentiment
Market sentiment shifted toward a “Sell America” theme after tariff confusion sparked by US President Donald Trump over the weekend rattled investor confidence. Wall Street extended losses on Monday amid ongoing uncertainty over tariff policy, rising geopolitical risks, and investor caution ahead of AI giant Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday.
According to a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the Trump administration is considering new national security tariffs on multiple industries following the Supreme Court’s decision last Friday to overturn several tariffs imposed during Trump’s second term.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran remain elevated, adding another layer of uncertainty to global markets.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations and India Demand Support Gold
Despite a modest USD rebound that ended gold’s four-day winning streak, downside risks appear contained. Markets continue to price in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, a factor that typically supports non-yielding assets such as gold.
Additionally, strong investment demand from India, even at record-high price levels, continues to provide fundamental support for the precious metal, according to Money Metals Exchange.
Gold Outlook: Consolidation Before Breakout?
With tariff uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and Fed rate cut expectations in play, gold remains well-supported despite short-term pullbacks. As long as the $5,140 support zone holds, the broader bullish trend structure remains intact.
Traders now await a decisive breakout above $5,342 or a corrective move toward deeper moving average support to determine the next major directional move in gold prices.