Gold Faces Pressure

Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to extend their recovery on Monday, trading modestly higher above the key psychological level of $4,000 during the early European session. However, the lack of strong buying momentum suggests that investors remain cautious about a sustained rebound from the precious metal's three-month low.

Recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicate that there is no immediate need to raise interest rates. Nevertheless, markets continue to price in approximately an 80% probability of a US rate hike by the end of the year. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions have strengthened demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), creating additional downward pressure on gold prices.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Persists

Gold maintains a bearish short-term outlook after breaking below the key trading range support near $4,100 last week. Repeated failures to move above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) further reinforce the negative technical outlook, suggesting that the recent recovery may represent a temporary correction within the broader downtrend.

Any further recovery could encounter selling pressure near $4,100, which has now turned from support into resistance. The next significant technical barrier stands at the 100-period EMA around $4,135.95.

A sustained break above this moving average would improve the short-term outlook for XAU/USD and potentially open the door for a recovery toward the $4,200 level.

Conversely, failure to overcome these resistance levels could leave gold vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, particularly if the US Dollar strengthens further.

Strong US PMI Data Fuels Inflation Concerns

Recent US economic data has reinforced concerns that inflation could remain elevated, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy.

The preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 56.0 in October, marking its highest reading in 53 months and surpassing market expectations of 55.6.

Meanwhile, the Services PMI came in at 57.9, in line with forecasts but below September's reading of 58.8. The Composite Output Index also declined to 57.6 from the previous month's five-year high of 58.4.

Further details revealed that the output price index increased to 59.8, its highest level since August 2022. This suggests that inflationary pressures may intensify and remain persistent over the coming months.

The combination of resilient economic activity and rising price pressures could encourage the Fed to maintain a restrictive monetary stance for longer. Such expectations generally weigh on gold because the precious metal does not generate interest income.

Iran Tensions and Higher Oil Prices Support the US Dollar

Rising crude oil prices have added another challenge for gold, with oil reaching its highest level since September 16 amid concerns about potential supply disruptions following attacks in Saudi Arabia and escalating tensions involving Iran.

On Sunday, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen reportedly vowed to continue attacking King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran have kept geopolitical uncertainty elevated.

These developments have supported safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, limiting the currency's downside potential and reducing the appeal of aggressive bullish positions in gold.

Higher energy prices could also intensify inflation concerns, increasing the possibility that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer. This combination of a stronger US Dollar, elevated inflation risks, and restrictive monetary policy could continue to constrain gold's recovery.

Investors may also avoid taking large positions ahead of several major central bank decisions and important US economic releases scheduled for this week.

FOMC Meeting and US Economic Data in Focus

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to be the main market catalyst this week, with the two-day policy meeting scheduled to conclude on Wednesday.

Without updated economic projections, investors will closely examine the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during the post-meeting press conference. These communications could provide important clues about the central bank's future policy direction and influence the US Dollar's short-term performance.

Market participants will also monitor the preliminary US third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, both scheduled for release on Thursday.

The PCE report is particularly important because it serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially weighing further on gold prices. Conversely, softer inflation data could ease pressure on the precious metal by reducing expectations of additional rate hikes.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are scheduled to announce their interest rate decisions this week. These events could increase volatility across global financial markets and influence demand for gold and the US Dollar.

Gold Price Outlook: Recovery Remains Vulnerable

Gold prices continue to face significant technical and fundamental challenges despite recovering above the psychological $4,000 threshold.

The recent break below $4,100, resistance from the 100-period EMA, persistent inflation concerns, and strong safe-haven demand for the US Dollar all point to continued downside risks for XAU/USD.

From a technical perspective, gold needs to reclaim the $4,100 level and break above the 100-period EMA near $4,135.95 to strengthen its recovery prospects. A successful move above these barriers could pave the way for a potential advance toward $4,200.

However, if gold fails to maintain momentum above $4,000, selling pressure could return and expose the market to further losses.

With the upcoming FOMC decision, US GDP figures, and PCE inflation data likely to shape interest rate expectations, traders should remain cautious before concluding that gold has established a sustainable market bottom.

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Gold Struggles Below

 

Gold prices (XAU/USD) attempted to recover above the psychological $4,000 level on Friday after falling to $3,986 during the Asian trading session, marking the lowest level since July. The rebound came as bargain hunters entered the market following Thursday’s sharp sell-off, which saw the precious metal lose 2.81%.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Persists

On the daily chart, XAU/USD continues to correct below all major moving averages, maintaining a bearish short-term outlook. Momentum indicators remain weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 35 and approaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) has edged higher to around 24, suggesting that the bearish trend is gradually gaining strength.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the psychological $4,100 level, followed by another horizontal barrier at $4,200. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,224 reinforces this resistance zone and represents a major obstacle to any sustained recovery.

A break above this level could bring the 50-day SMA at $4,302 into focus, potentially opening the way toward the $4,400 area. Further resistance is located at the 200-day SMA near $4,509, which continues to define the broader bearish technical structure.

On the downside, failure to hold above $4,000 could trigger further losses, exposing initial support at $3,950, followed by the $3,900 zone. A sustained break below $3,900 could pave the way for a deeper decline toward $3,800.

Treasury Yields and Oil Prices Pressure Gold

Rabobank analysts described Thursday as a “brutal day for markets,” noting that the S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,663, dragged lower by the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, which moved toward its lowest level since July.

The sharp equity sell-off triggered a strong rally in government bonds. Rabobank highlighted that weakness in equities supported US Treasuries, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield falling below 5% for the first time since September, despite higher energy prices. The two-year Treasury yield also dropped below 4.75%.

However, gold failed to benefit from falling equity prices and declining US Treasury yields on Thursday, as several other factors weighed on the precious metal.

Escalating Middle East tensions continued to support energy prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil trading near $100 per barrel, close to a five-week high. Higher oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, strengthening expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer.

This outlook increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making the precious metal less attractive to investors.

Some traders may also have sold precious metals to cover losses in equities. Technical selling likely added further pressure after gold broke below the $4,100–$4,200 trading range that had largely held since early October.

US Dollar Stabilizes as Gold Remains Vulnerable

Against this backdrop, gold remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure during temporary rebounds, particularly as the US dollar and Treasury yields show signs of stabilization following Thursday’s declines.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, traded around 101.78, up 0.14%. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield stood near 4.99%.

Later on Friday, traders will focus on the preliminary October S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment survey, including its inflation expectations component.

These economic indicators could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and determine whether gold can extend its recovery above $4,000.

Federal Reserve Meeting in Focus Next Week

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged after delivering a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.

Investors will closely monitor how policymakers balance persistent inflation risks against concerns that a slowdown in AI-related investment could weigh on economic growth.

Any indication that another rate increase remains possible in December could limit gold’s recovery. Higher interest rates generally support the US dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, potentially keeping XAU/USD under pressure.

For now, the $4,000 psychological level remains a critical area for gold traders. Holding above this threshold could support a short-term rebound, while a decisive break below it would increase the risk of further declines toward $3,950, $3,900, and potentially $3,800.

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Gold Rebounds Below $4,100

 

Gold (XAU/USD) trimmed its sharp intraday losses after falling to a monthly low during Thursday’s early European session on October 22, 2026. However, the precious metal maintained a bearish short-term outlook, trading below the key $4,100 level.

The US Dollar (USD) remained under selling pressure as recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggested there was little urgency to raise interest rates at the October 27–28 policy meeting. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields extended their retreat from multi-year highs, weighing on the Greenback and providing some support for gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Outlook

The XAU/USD pair maintained a bearish bias below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remained in negative territory, with its line below the signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered in the mid-30s.

Together, these momentum indicators suggest persistent selling pressure, although gold is approaching oversold conditions.

On the downside, initial support is located around $4,075–$4,065, near the monthly swing low. A sustained break below this zone could trigger additional selling, exposing the intermediate support area at $4,030–$4,025 before the psychological $4,000 threshold comes into focus.

On the upside, the $4,140 area represents the nearest resistance. A decisive move above this level could open the door for another attempt to reclaim $4,200. Sustained strength above $4,200 could push gold toward the 200-period SMA near $4,232. A breakout above this moving average would help ease the current bearish pressure and potentially pave the way for a more meaningful corrective rebound.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Gold

Despite the recent weakness in the US Dollar and Treasury yields, gold continues to face headwinds from expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy.

US inflation data released last week reinforced market expectations of a potential rate hike. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in approximately a 90% probability that the Fed will raise borrowing costs in December.

Volatile oil prices have also fueled inflation concerns, strengthening the case for further monetary tightening. This outlook remains a headwind for gold, which does not offer interest income. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical risks could limit losses in the safe-haven US Dollar, potentially capping further gains in the precious metal.

Middle East Tensions Support the US Dollar

Developments surrounding the Middle East crisis continue to influence market sentiment. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained open to diplomacy while emphasizing the country's readiness to defend itself. He also expressed limited expectations for progress, arguing that Washington had shown little willingness to reach an understanding.

Separately, The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel had developed plans for a short but intensive military campaign against Iran following the US midterm elections. These geopolitical concerns could underpin demand for the safe-haven US Dollar and weigh on gold's recovery.

US Jobless Claims and Fed Meeting in Focus

Gold's acceptance below the psychological $4,100 level reinforces the risk of further downside in the near term. Traders are now looking to the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday for fresh trading signals, followed by preliminary global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Friday.

Nevertheless, the main focus remains on next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which could provide further clues about the Fed's interest rate outlook and the next major direction for gold prices.

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