Gold Eyes Breakout

Gold Holds Above $4,650 as Traders Await US PCE Data for Fed Rate Clues

Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their two-way trading pattern for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, holding above the $4,650 level during Asian trading hours. The precious metal remains close to its highest level since May 14 as investors await the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation gauge that could provide fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

Gold Rally Faces Resistance Near Key Technical Levels

The recent breakout above the important $4,500 psychological level marked a significant bullish development for gold. This area coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-June decline, making it a critical support zone for buyers.

However, the subsequent rally has struggled to gain acceptance above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that traders should remain cautious before anticipating a sustained move higher.

Technical indicators present a mixed but generally constructive picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is hovering near 72, signaling overbought conditions and indicating that bullish momentum may be vulnerable to a period of consolidation. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains firmly in positive territory, reinforcing the broader bullish bias despite stretched momentum.

For now, gold bulls appear reluctant to make aggressive bets until prices decisively break above the $4,700 resistance level.

Key Gold Price Levels to Watch

A sustained move above $4,700 could open the door toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,856, followed by the 78.6% retracement near $5,104. Beyond that, attention could shift to the cycle high around $5,421.

On the downside, immediate support is located near the 200-day SMA at $4,522 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,508. A deeper pullback could expose the 23.6% retracement level at $4,292, followed by a major structural support zone around $3,944.

Fed Expectations and Treasury Buybacks Support Gold

Market expectations have increasingly shifted toward a pause in interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 15–16. Cooling inflation pressures and a softer labor market have reduced the urgency for further monetary tightening.

At the same time, the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback strategy has contributed to a further decline in Treasury yields. Senior officials have indicated that the Treasury could use part of its nearly $1 trillion General Account balance to finance recently announced plans aimed at increasing purchases of longer-dated government bonds.

Lower Treasury yields generally benefit gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making bullion more attractive to investors.

Middle East Developments Weigh on Oil and Support Gold

Gold has also received support from falling crude oil prices as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing.

Oil prices dropped to their lowest level in nearly two weeks after Iran announced that it had resumed discussions with Oman regarding commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Both countries reportedly explored the possibility of establishing a temporary joint navigation corridor through the strategically important waterway.

In addition, the United States has reportedly offered sanctions relief and an end to maritime restrictions in exchange for the reopening of the Strait and a halt to attacks by Iran-backed regional proxies.

These developments have revived hopes for a diplomatic solution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, helping to reduce inflation concerns through lower energy prices. Softer inflation expectations have placed additional downward pressure on U.S. bond yields, limiting demand for the U.S. dollar and providing further support for gold prices.

Gold Outlook Remains Bullish but $4,700 Is Key

Despite strong bullish momentum, traders remain cautious ahead of the U.S. PCE inflation report and continue to watch the critical $4,700 resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this barrier could trigger a fresh wave of buying and strengthen the case for further gains in gold prices.

Until then, investors are likely to remain focused on incoming economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, Treasury market developments, and geopolitical events that continue to shape the outlook for both the U.S. dollar and precious metals.

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Gold Rally Continues

Gold Surges Above $4,650 Amid Rising U.S. Fiscal Concerns

Gold prices extended their rally on Monday, climbing above $4,650 per ounce and strengthening their position at a three-month high as concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and Treasury efforts to lower long-term borrowing costs continued to boost demand for the precious metal.

As of 2:42 PM WIB, XAU/USD gained 1% to $4,650.63 per ounce, while Gold Futures advanced 0.6% to $4,706.89. Silver (XAG/USD) edged up 0.2% to $69.15 per ounce, while platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.6% to $1,892.51. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 98.88.

U.S. Treasury Intervention Revives Dollar-Bearish Trade

Gold continued its strong upward momentum after posting gains of more than 5% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly advance. The precious metal traded above $4,620 per ounce on Monday, building on Friday’s 1.9% gain and remaining near its highest level in three months.

The latest rally is closely linked to the U.S. Treasury’s unexpected decision to expand purchases of long-dated government bonds. The move pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, reviving investment strategies that favor hard assets such as gold when confidence in the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies weakens.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later suggested that the government could further expand its bond buyback program and indicated that additional fiscal initiatives aimed at addressing elevated government borrowing costs would be announced soon.

Beyond lower yields, the Treasury’s intervention has sparked broader concerns about whether policymakers are becoming increasingly willing to manage borrowing costs directly rather than allowing the bond market to determine them freely.

Analysts at ANZ noted that the Treasury’s actions have intensified concerns about the U.S. fiscal position. According to the bank, gold’s move above $4,500 reflects expectations that policymakers will continue efforts to keep long-term yields under control, while sustained pressure on the U.S. dollar encourages investors to increase exposure to bullion.

These concerns have become even more pronounced after U.S. government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, while the dollar fell to its lowest level in more than three months.

Gold Demand Strengthens as Debt Concerns Rise

Investor appetite for gold continues to expand as the Treasury-driven rally gains momentum. According to ANZ analysts, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest daily inflow since September 2025 and extended a streak of net inflows to five consecutive weeks.

Technical indicators also remain supportive. Gold has moved above its 200-day moving average near $4,513, a level widely monitored by traders as a signal that the long-term trend has turned more bullish. The next major technical target is seen around $4,700 per ounce if momentum remains intact.

At the same time, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support demand for safe-haven assets and stores of value.

Gold has now moved well beyond the $4,000-per-ounce level that previously served as a key support zone during earlier corrections. Continued central bank purchases and rising ETF demand have further reinforced the metal’s recovery, highlighting its appeal as investors seek protection against fiscal risks, currency weakness, and market uncertainty.

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Antam Gold Surges

Antam Gold Jumps 3% as UBS Raises Long-Term Gold Price Target to $5,400

Indonesia’s Antam gold prices surged sharply on Thursday (August 20, 2026), climbing Rp80,000, or around 3%, to Rp2,725,000 per gram from Rp2,645,000 per gram a day earlier. The rally marks the strongest daily increase in recent sessions, following a Rp50,000 decline recorded on Wednesday.

Global Gold Rally Lifts Antam Prices

The sharp rise in Antam gold prices mirrors the strong performance of global gold markets, where bullion prices gained nearly 3% amid continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The depreciation of the U.S. currency boosted demand for gold as investors sought safe-haven assets and inflation hedges.

Antam’s buyback price also increased by Rp80,000, reaching Rp2,585,000 per gram. Despite the latest surge, Antam gold remains approximately 14% below its all-time high of Rp3,168,000 per gram, recorded on January 29, 2026.

On a year-to-date basis, however, the precious metal continues to deliver solid gains. Antam gold has risen roughly 9.5% since the beginning of the year, when prices stood at Rp2,488,000 per gram, highlighting sustained investor interest in gold amid global economic uncertainty.

UBS Sees Gold Reaching $5,400 per Ounce

In the international market, Swiss banking giant UBS has raised its long-term forecast for gold prices, projecting XAU/USD to reach $5,400 per ounce by September 2027. The bank cited expectations of further disinflation and a less restrictive U.S. monetary policy environment as key drivers behind the bullish outlook.

According to UBS, easing inflationary pressures could encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a more accommodative stance, while broader U.S. dollar weakness is expected to provide additional support for gold prices over the coming years.

Despite the upgraded long-term target, UBS maintained its end-2026 gold price forecast at $4,600 per ounce, signaling confidence that the precious metal will remain supported by macroeconomic and monetary policy trends.

Fed Rate Outlook Remains Key Catalyst

Gold prices have recently advanced as investors reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. Softer U.S. labor market data has strengthened expectations that policymakers may keep rates unchanged if inflation continues to remain under control.

Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators and Fed commentary for clues about the future path of monetary policy. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making the metal more attractive to investors.

With central bank policy, inflation trends, and currency movements continuing to shape market sentiment, gold remains one of the most closely watched assets in global financial markets.

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